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[NL20-NL50] Top set. Value maximizing or protection?

    • caltabiano
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($12.08)
      BB ($46.23)
      Hero ($58.98)
      CO ($50.79)
      BTN ($123)

      Dealt to Hero Q:heart: Q:club:

      Hero raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, fold, SB calls $1.50, BB calls $1.25

      FLOP ($7) 4:club: 7:heart: Q:spade:

      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $4, CO calls $4, SB folds, BB folds

      TURN ($15) 4:club: 7:heart: Q:spade: 3:club:

      Hero bets $8, CO raises to $22, Hero raises to $53.23 (AI), CO folds

      Hero shows Q:heart: Q:club:

      Hero wins $56.05

      After I played this hand, I thought a lot if shoving had really been the best move. I had a tiny bit of history with villain. I had been pretty aggressive lately. Villain isn't the most aggresive guy in the world, but he's able to pull off bluffs from time to time.

      The question here is: Do I need to protect on this turn? IMO, there's no resonable draw that villain can have, because I hold the Q :club: . If I didn't have that blocker, then there'd be a bunch of FD.
      Unless he holds something like 6 :club: 7 :club: or something like that. But then again, I think his range is much closer to pocket pairs and broadways.

      If there's need for protection, then obviously shoving is the best move. Now, if there's no need for protection, what's the best line to extract here?
      I figured just call his raise and ch/cAI river, because all of his value raises will shove river and all of his bluffs will fold to any further action by me, but maybe he's in the mood for bluff shoving the river.

      What do you think? What's the best way to get about this hand?
  • 2 replies
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      Short answer

      I don't think you need to concern yourself with protection in this spot. Apart from that you answered your own questions, that makes my job easy.

      Long answer

      I think you can bet more on the flop, nothing to do with protection, just people won't care if it's $4 $4.5 or even $5, so start maximizing value there in my opinion.

      On the turn his range is very opponent dependent. It's hard for him to have anything really, he has

      - top pair, hard for him to have, you've got three of the four Q accounted for.

      - a lower set, not that likely.

      - 65 maybe, depends on how loose he is preflop.

      - some kind of float he will probably fold to a bet unless he's aggro enough to bluff raise the turn or picked up a flushdraw with some obscure hand since you have the Qc (he might not even raise that for all we know, so i wouldn't worry about it).

      Since you're gonna get the money in against sets and 65 anyway, and probably only one more street out of top pair unless he's sick of you, i think you should concentrate on his floats unless your reads on him tell you he rarely peels your c-bets.

      If you think he'll bluff raise that turn, betting weak into him is best imo, but i would indeed just call the raise and check/shove the river to give him another opportunity to bluff, unless he's nitty enough to check behind another set on the river, which he probably isn't.

      If not, try and get at least a bet by checking to him quickly, and then depending on what you think might tilt him, either take forever or instantly raise his bet smallish like 2.3x, that leaves him some room to go nuts. I wouldn't just c/c turn c/r river he's too likely to give up on the river.

      Hope it helps.
    • caltabiano
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      Yeah, thanks for the answer =)

      Betting biger on the flop is defiitely a must here I think. When it gets to the river this extra $1 or $2 on the flop make a huge difference.