# [NL2-NL10] NL100 99 missed squeeze

• Black
Joined: 02.11.2008
Known players:
Position:
Stack
MP1:
\$106.85
MP2:
\$10.73
CO:
\$100.00

0.5/1 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is BU with 9 , 9
3 folds, MP1 raises to \$3.00, MP2 calls \$3.00, MP3 folds, CO calls \$3.00, 3 folds.

Flop: (\$10.50) K , 5 , 8 (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks.

Turn: (\$10.50) 7 (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO bets \$5.25, 2 folds.

Final Pot: \$15.75

I thought about squeezing here, but in the end didn't. Could I have done so, profitably?

Thanks
• 13 replies
• Bronze
Joined: 21.08.2008
equilator?
• Bronze
Joined: 07.05.2008
Hello Tim,

Easy squeeze, determine MP1's range and use the EV-formula for determining if you are +EV or -EV

P*FE + (1-FE)*EQ*[[EffectiveStack+DeadMoney*0.95]] - (1-EQ)*ES = EV(Squeeze)

Best regards,
Gerv
• Black
Joined: 02.11.2008
P*FE + (1-FE)*EQ*[[EffectiveStack+DeadMoney*0.95]] - (1-EQ)*ES = EV(Squeeze)

Assumption: Villain Raises 12% and calls with top 4%. Therefore he folds 66% of hands he raises with.

Against his 4% calling range I have 33% equity

\$10.5*0.66 + (1-0.66)* 0.33 * [\$20 + \$9 + \$3 *0.95] - (1-0.66)* \$20 =

\$6.93 + (\$3.3 - \$6.6) = \$3.63

Is this about right? Are my assumptions ok?
Thanks
• Bronze
Joined: 07.05.2008
Nope Tim64

last part you have wrong

1-EQ = 1-0.33 = 0.66

\$6.93 + \$3.31 -- \$13.2
=
-\$2.96
• Black
Joined: 02.11.2008
Ah, I see. Yes - should be 1-0.33 = 0.66 * my stack.

And you're right, this gives a negative EV.

But I'm confused, as you said: 'easy squeeze'. If it's an easy squeeze then my assumptions for the calculation must be way wrong as it can't be an easy squeeze if it gives a negative EV, can it?

• Bronze
Joined: 21.08.2008
because theres a mistake:
P*FE + (1-FE)*EQ*[[EffectiveStack+DeadMoney]*0.95] -(1-FE)* (1-EQ)*ES = EV(Squeeze)

so it's
\$6.93 + \$3.31 - \$4.36
=+5.88\$
• Bronze
Joined: 07.05.2008
Yea I forgot to mention that my lonely (1-FE) is covering the parts behind it:
EV = Pot*Foldequity + (1-Foldequity)[(eff.Stack+Deadmoney)*Equity – (eff.Stack*(1-Equity))]

To prevent confusion, Goldflair has it right (obvious because this is a must squeeze part)

my Apologies,
Gerv
• Bronze
Joined: 14.06.2009
"Villain Raises 12% and calls with top 4%. Therefore he folds 66% of hands he raises with"

Im sorry to bring this threat up.
But Im trying to figure out how to calculate Equity and FE

How did you get 4% here? with which stats i can see that??
and how did he get 66%?
100 = 12
X = 4

4*100 / 12?? = 33.33333

100-33.3333??

am i right?
is there a easier way to calculate it?
Thanks

Fred-
• Black
Joined: 02.11.2008
Well, the 4% is just an assumption for the purposes of working out our equity if we happen to get called.

Assumption: Villain Raises 12% and calls with top 4%. Therefore he folds 66% of hands he raises with.

So, we know that villain raises 12% of his hands because we can read it from his pfr stat. When we 3bet we can assume villain will call with some of the hands he originally raised with and fold the remainder. So, if we assume he calls with the top 4% of hands he raises with, we can deduce that he will fold 2/3 of the time - 66% - (ie. folds the bottom 8% of his raising range).

Does that make sense?
Tim
• Bronze
Joined: 14.06.2009
But, does that mean we can only assume that he call us with 4%?
• Black
Joined: 02.11.2008
Well, we have to make an assumption, to model the scenario.

So, we can look at equilator and think about what likely range he might call our push with. If he calls with JJ+, AK+, this is around 4% (or maybe slightly less - not sure).

We can also test our equity in case he calls with a wider range - say 6%. By testing different possible ranges we can see how our EV changes. E.g. if villain calls with a wider range, our fold equity reduces (because he folds less often), but our equity against his calling range increases (because that range now includes some hands that we are doing ok against).

Tim
• Bronze
Joined: 14.04.2009
Originally posted by fred1509