[NL2-NL10] NL100 99 missed squeeze

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      MP1:
      $106.85
      MP2:
      $10.73
      CO:
      $100.00

      0.5/1 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with 9:heart: , 9:spade:
      3 folds, MP1 raises to $3.00, MP2 calls $3.00, MP3 folds, CO calls $3.00, 3 folds.

      Flop: ($10.50) K:heart: , 5:diamond: , 8:heart: (3 players)
      MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks.

      Turn: ($10.50) 7:diamond: (3 players)
      MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO bets $5.25, 2 folds.

      Final Pot: $15.75

      I thought about squeezing here, but in the end didn't. Could I have done so, profitably?

      Thanks
  • 13 replies
    • goldflair03
      goldflair03
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2008 Posts: 1,957
      equilator?
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hello Tim,

      Easy squeeze, determine MP1's range and use the EV-formula for determining if you are +EV or -EV

      P*FE + (1-FE)*EQ*[[EffectiveStack+DeadMoney*0.95]] - (1-EQ)*ES = EV(Squeeze)

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      P*FE + (1-FE)*EQ*[[EffectiveStack+DeadMoney*0.95]] - (1-EQ)*ES = EV(Squeeze)

      Assumption: Villain Raises 12% and calls with top 4%. Therefore he folds 66% of hands he raises with.

      Against his 4% calling range I have 33% equity

      $10.5*0.66 + (1-0.66)* 0.33 * [$20 + $9 + $3 *0.95] - (1-0.66)* $20 =

      $6.93 + ($3.3 - $6.6) = $3.63

      Is this about right? Are my assumptions ok?
      Thanks
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Nope Tim64

      last part you have wrong

      1-EQ = 1-0.33 = 0.66

      $6.93 + $3.31 -- $13.2
      =
      -$2.96
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Ah, I see. Yes - should be 1-0.33 = 0.66 * my stack.

      And you're right, this gives a negative EV.

      But I'm confused, as you said: 'easy squeeze'. If it's an easy squeeze then my assumptions for the calculation must be way wrong as it can't be an easy squeeze if it gives a negative EV, can it?

      ?(
    • goldflair03
      goldflair03
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2008 Posts: 1,957
      because theres a mistake:
      P*FE + (1-FE)*EQ*[[EffectiveStack+DeadMoney]*0.95] -(1-FE)* (1-EQ)*ES = EV(Squeeze)

      so it's
      $6.93 + $3.31 - $4.36
      =+5.88$
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Yea I forgot to mention that my lonely (1-FE) is covering the parts behind it:
      EV = Pot*Foldequity + (1-Foldequity)[(eff.Stack+Deadmoney)*Equity – (eff.Stack*(1-Equity))]

      To prevent confusion, Goldflair has it right (obvious because this is a must squeeze part)

      my Apologies,
      Gerv
    • fred1509
      fred1509
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.06.2009 Posts: 25
      "Villain Raises 12% and calls with top 4%. Therefore he folds 66% of hands he raises with"

      Im sorry to bring this threat up.
      But Im trying to figure out how to calculate Equity and FE

      How did you get 4% here? with which stats i can see that??
      and how did he get 66%?
      100 = 12
      X = 4

      4*100 / 12?? = 33.33333

      100-33.3333??

      am i right?
      is there a easier way to calculate it?
      Thanks :]


      Fred-
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Well, the 4% is just an assumption for the purposes of working out our equity if we happen to get called.

      Assumption: Villain Raises 12% and calls with top 4%. Therefore he folds 66% of hands he raises with.


      So, we know that villain raises 12% of his hands because we can read it from his pfr stat. When we 3bet we can assume villain will call with some of the hands he originally raised with and fold the remainder. So, if we assume he calls with the top 4% of hands he raises with, we can deduce that he will fold 2/3 of the time - 66% - (ie. folds the bottom 8% of his raising range).

      Does that make sense?
      Tim
    • fred1509
      fred1509
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.06.2009 Posts: 25
      Thanks for replying Tim64.
      But, does that mean we can only assume that he call us with 4%?
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Well, we have to make an assumption, to model the scenario.

      So, we can look at equilator and think about what likely range he might call our push with. If he calls with JJ+, AK+, this is around 4% (or maybe slightly less - not sure).

      We can also test our equity in case he calls with a wider range - say 6%. By testing different possible ranges we can see how our EV changes. E.g. if villain calls with a wider range, our fold equity reduces (because he folds less often), but our equity against his calling range increases (because that range now includes some hands that we are doing ok against).

      Tim
    • RahXephon1
      RahXephon1
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2009 Posts: 972
      Originally posted by fred1509
      Thanks for replying Tim64.
      But, does that mean we can only assume that he call us with 4%?
      We assume that he makes the most logical thing. That is why notes are important. So we know when players play much differently than expected so we can adjust our play. The more information you have the more accurate can your estimates be. Without information the best bet is to choose a line that seems obvious.
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Originally posted by Tim64
      P*FE + (1-FE)*EQ*[[EffectiveStack+DeadMoney*0.95]] - (1-EQ)*ES = EV(Squeeze)

      $10.5*0.66 + (1-0.66)* 0.33 * [$20 + $9 + $3 *0.95] - (1-0.66)* $20 =
      Also, we can't really count with $9 of dead money here, it shoudl be only $6, since the $3 of the first raiser are already included in the $20 of his AI. That is, if we go AI against him we'll have $20 of his stack + $6 dead money of the 2 CC + blinds.