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[NL2-NL10] NL100 KQo

    • dandycal
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
      SB ($85.48)
      BB ($69.10)
      UTG ($45.85)
      UTG+1 ($129)
      UTG+2 ($21.06)
      MP1 ($78.94)
      Hero ($18.50)
      BTN ($17)

      Dealt to Hero Q:diamond: K:heart:

      fold, UTG+1 calls $1, UTG+2 calls $1, fold, Hero raises to $5, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG+2 calls $4

      FLOP ($12.50) 8:spade: 4:spade: 3:spade:

      UTG+2 checks, Hero?

      Villain is 63/0 after 40 hands, 25WTS.

      Push or fold? I don't have much equity here since I hold no :spade: and only K high, but given the odds it wouldn't take much FE to make this profitable. So push as c-bet?
  • 4 replies
    • WildBeans
      Joined: 23.09.2008 Posts: 586
      Hmmm.. I'm tempted to say push (although only a couple of hands).. he'll probably call any spade, any 843, any pp.. maybe folding 60% of his hands. even if you're a 2 to 1 dog on his calling range, the fold equity should make up for that..
    • mikelstwe
      Joined: 29.08.2008 Posts: 156
      I'd definitely push flop for the extra FE
    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      I agree. 60% pfr - even small sample - means he doesn't have a hand here - like a pocket pair - that often. Even if he calls every suited connector he picks up, it's only 1 in 4 that he has :spade: If he doesn't, he can hardly call very often.

      On the other hand, your stack is not so big that you can give him really bad odds for the call (he still gets ~2:1 on your push) and it's hard to know what you can represent here. So maybe checking behind is another way to go, and see the Turn for free? A delayed cbet might have similar FE and, if another spade turns up, you can just chk/fld it.

      I think both lines have merits.

      Incidentally, if you do push, would this be considered as 'turning one's hand into a bluff'. The reson I ask is because I'm trying to understand how that phrase is used...
    • burek2000
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey dandycal,

      given the stats, I would push, even though your equity on the flop against 63% range is only 37%, FE should make it up, because I do think he should fold many hands on this flop, specially ones without :spade: .