[NL2-NL10] NL200 JJ vs ep raise

    • WildBeans
      WildBeans
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.09.2008 Posts: 586
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:


      this guy was 16/4 in EP (25/6 overall(edit: and this was over 3k hands)), and the caller was 29/12
      I was going to fold and then got too tempted by the squeeze idea and all the money in the pot.
      The only thing you're hoping for is that he has AK and even then it's not that nice. So should I have folded?

      Play hand

      $1/$2 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      MP2:
      $258.45
      MP3:
      $200.00
      CO:
      $40.00
      BU(Hero):
      $37.25
      SB:
      $50.00
      BB:
      $283.35
      UTG1:
      $282.25
      UTG2:
      $78.00
      MP1:
      $61.35


      Preflop: Hero is BU with J, J.
      CO posts deadblind, UTG1 raises to $8.00, UTG2 folds, MP1 calls $8.00, 3 folds, Hero raises to $37.25(All-In), 2 folds, UTG1 raises to $58.50, MP1 folds.

      Flop: ($116.75) A, 9, 4 (2 players)


      Turn: ($116.75) 8 (2 players)


      River: ($116.75) 2 (2 players)


      Final Pot: $116.75.
      Results follow:

      Hero shows a pair of jacks(J J).
      UTG1 shows a pair of kings(K K).

      UTG1 wins with a pair of kings(K K).
  • 5 replies
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      The Co post adds a litle to pot odds and could make UTG raise just slightly looser? If he does raise TT+ AQ and only calls JJ+ AK you can get nearly 1BB EV.

      The possibility of MP1 calling the squeeze also could increase your EV.

      I'm not sure what I'd do here tbh, on the spot I would perhaps push as you did.
    • RahXephon1
      RahXephon1
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2009 Posts: 972
      I always get in trouble in spots like this, so I decided I will only raise when I'll have some edge that is not just a couple%. I think is better to make a weak fold than to make a weak raise. And the variance should be much smaller this way.

      Is this reasonable or is too much -EV?
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Well I think you are clearly behind here, but you need less equity once MP1 has cold called.

      Against 4% pfr you have 48.6% equity. (Running Equilator: "4% vs JJ" - is this the right way to do it?)

      So you risk $37.25 to win $37.25 + $8 + $6 (less $3) = $48.25 So pot odds of 1.29:1 which means your break even equity is ~43%.

      Assuming 0 FE, we get: (0.486* $48.25) less .(0.514* $37.25) = $23.45 less $ 19.15 = +~$4.00

      So it looks like a nice spot for a push to me. Would be good to have confirmation from someone who knows what they're doing though...

      Tim
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Originally posted by Tim64
      Well I think you are clearly behind here, but you need less equity once MP1 has cold called.

      Against 4% pfr you have 48.6% equity. (Running Equilator: "4% vs JJ" - is this the right way to do it?)
      Tim
      I don't like the Equilator's choice of cards that much, it chooses based on general Equity, but the players' ranges differ slightly imo. For instance, the equilator gives you 99+, AQs+, AKo for a 4% range. But in this case it seems more sensible that a player would raise JJ+ AK, maybe TT+ AK, AQs and so on. And that affects our equity significantly.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hi Wildbeans,

      While you have JJ which is his bottomrange at EP, I think he is raising with AK+,QQ+ which makes the situation even worse.

      You have 36% here but what's more important is determining your FEQ against UTG1 since that's the guy im worried about.
      For EV=0 you need a minimum FE of 24.54% (Pot=21, ES 37, Eq 36, DM 13-3$(rake))

      Will he be folding QQ after your 3bet?
      Will he be folding AK after your 3bet?

      I do not think a BSS player will fold QQ+ AK with so much deadmoney against a 3bet

      So with that being said, I think you will lose money in the long term with JJ here

      QQ+,AK+ I am auto 3betting here though

      Best regards,
      Gerv