[NL20-NL50] AK. nl25 sh.

    • Macias09
      Macias09
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2008 Posts: 1,823
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      MP3:
      $28,50
      Hero:
      $24,90

      0,1/0,25 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.62 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with A:spade: , K:heart:
      MP3 raises to $1,00, CO folds, Hero raises to $3,00, 2 folds, MP3 raises to $7,00, Hero folds, MP3 gets uncalled bet back..

      Final Pot: $6,35

      Few hands before I 3bet him and he fold and he saw me loosing BI one hand before this one. I did some math here and I wonder if its ok.

      Proces zakończony... 35 958 384 gier w 0 Sekundy. Equity Wygrana Remis Zagubiona Ręka
      Gracz 1: 61,176% 40,496% 41,359% 18,145% QQ+, AKs, AKo
      Gracz 2: 38,824% 18,145% 41,359% 40,496% AsKh

      EV= 0.38 x (.10 + .25 + 3 + 7 +21) - 0.62 x 21
      EV= 11.91 - 13.02
      EV=-1.11

      I assume I have no fold equity here.
      So as I put him on this range, is my fold ok or I'm missing something?
      Or maybe I should call as I get 2.75:1 odds so I need at least 26% equity and I have 38%?
  • 1 reply
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,


      I see it that way :

      You have no fold equity, as he'll probably call off a shove with everything he 4bet with, which means you can consider him all-in. So you're risking 22$, which you still have to call, to win a total pot of 2*$25+$0.35=$50.35 equity % of the time.


      EV = total_pot*equity_hero - bet_to_call
      = 50.35*0.38824 - 22
      = -2.452116


      With your formula (it's the same thing really) you get


      EV = equity_hero*current_pot - equity_villain*bet
      = 0.38824*28.35 - 0.61176*22
      = -2.452116


      total_pot : both of your all-in + blinds
      current_pot : him all-in + your dead money + blinds


      Just make sure not to mix up the two.


      Just noticed you didn't exactly have 25$ effective stacks, but it's marginal.

      So indeed, you can dump it.


      Hope it helps.