What are my chances of going broke?

    • purpleshoes21
      purpleshoes21
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.04.2008 Posts: 100
      Hi,
      I have $16.22, and I want to play BSS with it- NL2. So, I have 8 buy-ins. I am a decent player, and my BB/100 is probably higher than 5. Can anyone give a good estimate of my chances of going broke?
      Thanks
      P.S. I tried playing SSS, but I just cannot do it. After playing BSS, SSS just seems so boring and the profit is just too low. (Part of this is the fact that I was playing SSS using just the bronze stuff, so it was very basic.)
  • 11 replies
    • Volrath89
      Volrath89
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2008 Posts: 2,171
      Well if Boku is making $5 into $100k and only busted once I think you have good chances :)


      Nah, but seriously as long as you don't play with scared money starting at NL2 with $16 is ok.. hehe ok its really hard to play scared money if an all in is 2 dollars lol, so just play your A game and you won't go broke :)
    • purpleshoes21
      purpleshoes21
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.04.2008 Posts: 100
      Thanks for the encouragement Volrath.
      Thats true- no scared money at this limit :)
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      How do you have such an enormous winrate but only $16 on a poker account?
    • swissmoumout
      swissmoumout
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.02.2007 Posts: 3,385
      If you have a *big* sample and HEM or PT3 (that calculate Standard Deviation), you can simulate variance using this tool: http://www.pokervariancesimulator.fr/
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      I started to play BSS NL4 with 6 buyins on microgaming (many fish) and didn't have experience at BSS, but few times I had to get back to SSS when I was down to ~3.5 buy-in (this was about 17-18 SSS buyins) and didn't went broke. Now I dont have to play SSS. Also I am now trying to rebuild my bankroll on mansion where I have 5.5 buy in for NL2 (of course its not that scary now because if I go broke I can withdraw my bankroll from micro gaming and deposit to mansion). So if you have experience its not a big problem for you.
      And yet - I buy in for 125bb (instead of 250bb ) and leave when I have 150bb on mansion, so I decrease chanses of going broke.
    • imson0ob
      imson0ob
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.12.2007 Posts: 80
      I think at NL2 my problem wouldnt be scared money but not being scared enough lol :D
    • JuiceQuadre
      JuiceQuadre
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.10.2008 Posts: 2,688
      Originally posted by purpleshoes21
      Hi,
      I have $16.22, and I want to play BSS with it- NL2. So, I have 8 buy-ins. I am a decent player, and my BB/100 is probably higher than 5. Can anyone give a good estimate of my chances of going broke?
      Thanks
      P.S. I tried playing SSS, but I just cannot do it. After playing BSS, SSS just seems so boring and the profit is just too low. (Part of this is the fact that I was playing SSS using just the bronze stuff, so it was very basic.)
      I started with 20$ at NL2... my biggest downswing was maybe 4$.. So play your best poker and i dont think ull go broke ;)
      Good luck to you!
    • purpleshoes21
      purpleshoes21
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.04.2008 Posts: 100
      Thanks everyone for your replies.
      Swissmoumout: Unfortunately I do not have these programs, but thanks anyways.

      DaPhunk: First of all, I started with no money in the account, not $50 since my FullTilt account is not tracked. Secondly, I am an idiot. After working my way up to around $25 using freerolls and stuff, I started playing heads up sit and goes for $2+0.15. I lost two in a row to some guy who was really bad, and he asked me to play again for more money. I agreed, and two really unlucky games later, my account was empty :( This will never happen again though.
    • whateverdude
      whateverdude
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.02.2009 Posts: 232
      play super nit and you wont go broke.
    • Sale1337
      Sale1337
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.05.2009 Posts: 103
      Originally posted by purpleshoes21
      Hi,
      I have $16.22, and I want to play BSS with it- NL2. So, I have 8 buy-ins. I am a decent player, and my BB/100 is probably higher than 5. Can anyone give a good estimate of my chances of going broke?
      Thanks
      P.S. I tried playing SSS, but I just cannot do it. After playing BSS, SSS just seems so boring and the profit is just too low. (Part of this is the fact that I was playing SSS using just the bronze stuff, so it was very basic.)
      If you can't play SSS I would say you have 20% to make it with BSS.
    • Hackett77
      Hackett77
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 372
      I think to start with you need to get a better idea of what your winrate is and where your losing money.

      5BB/100 is an unusually large w/r. I play for a living and my Wr is 3.6bb/100 which is high.

      You said probably aorund 5 so you dont know but it cant be that much as you have lost your stack.

      First things first, track your games, when your winning, times of day, length of sessions and get a good grasp of where your leaks are. Without proper details or how your performing and when your just pissing in the wind.