[NL2-NL10] NL100 AQo - 3bet and 4bet push

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,842
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      UTG2:
      $9.05
      Hero:
      $19.50
      MP3:
      $16.50

      0.5/1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A:diamond: , Q:heart:
      UTG1 folds, UTG2 calls $1.00, Hero raises to $4.50, MP2 folds, MP3 raises to $16.50 (All-In), 4 folds, UTG2 raises to $9.05 (All-In), Hero calls $12.00.

      Flop: ($43.55) 7:heart: , K:club: , 5:diamond:
      Turn: ($43.55) 7:diamond:
      River: ($43.55) 9:spade: (1 players)


      Final Pot: $43.55

      I have to call $12 for a pot of $31.55; so I need equity of 27.55%. I thought I would have this against most ranges, particularly given that utg2 looks like he is a fish (or, with 100% vpip, we might even say a whale).

      However, If I give mp3 a standard 3% 3bet range (JJ+AK+) then I need UTG to be calling virtually with his entire range to get my 27% (which is actually not an entirely unreasonable proposition). The only way things really improve for me is if mp3 is 3betting lighter. What do you think?

      Edit: if we take mp3's actual 3bet range (6% - 10/154) things are a little more comfortable with, like, 5% edge.
  • 7 replies
    • wuusaa
      wuusaa
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.05.2007 Posts: 455
      mp3: AK, TT
      you; AQ
      fish: 30% Range (22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo)

      in this situation you have 33% equity.
      so you can ship it.
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Originally posted by wuusaa
      mp3: AK, TT
      you; AQ
      fish: 30% Range (22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo)

      in this situation you have 33% equity.
      so you can ship it.
      He actually gets less than 25% Equity against these ranges. Maybe you didn't let equilator run for long enough =D Or try the Monte Carlo system for that, it's faster.

      With about 24% eq I don't see a profitable call here. And regarding 3betting stats and the like (such as f23bet) we have to remember that they are very situation dependent. A lot of the 3bet% comes from re-steals for example, and opponents 3 bet very differently depending on who is the original raiser. That mean that in this case, if MP3 knows you for being a TAG he'll never 3 bet 5%.
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey Tim64,

      MP3 looks like a SSS player to me, so I would put him on AK/JJ+, and against this range you can't get enough equity even if UTG goes broke with a random hand, which I also don't find very likely. I would fold this one.

      Btw, you need 29% BEQ.

      Regards,
      burek2000
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,842
      Hey Burek,

      I used Xarry's calc for the equity calc so I wonder where I went wrong. Maybe it doesn't account for rake?

      Thanks,

      Tim
      ( I agree with your reasoning why a fold is best - just want to make sure the calc is ok)
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Originally posted by Tim64
      Hey Burek,

      I used Xarry's calc for the equity calc so I wonder where I went wrong. Maybe it doesn't account for rake?

      Thanks,

      Tim
      ( I agree with your reasoning why a fold is best - just want to make sure the calc is ok)
      Unfortunately I have problems opening xarry's calc, so I can't check it, but I think the problem with your calculation might be the fact both opponents have smaller stack than you do and perhaps you included more then they have in their stacks.

      ...I got this idea, because if UTG2 had 16.5$ stack then BEQ would be 24, but you need to consider he only has 9.05$ stack.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,842
      ok - i'll take a look and let me know if you want me to email you the spreadsheet.
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Tnx, I have the spreadsheet, but I am on my laptop and don't have MS Office on it, so I can't open it. :f_mad: