[NL2-NL10] NL100 ATs 3bet vs tight villian

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $18.50
      MP3:
      $17.00

      0.5/1 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A:club: , T:club:
      5 folds, MP3 raises to $3.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $18.50 (All-In), MP3 folds.

      Final Pot: $22.50

      So villain is pfr 10% with average 7% pfR in mp. Against ~7% range I have 35% equity which speaks for a fold. However, villain folds to 3bet 75% (7 in 9 cases). On this basis we can consider pushing with high FE.
      I believe we need around 53% FE for BE which we should have comfortably with this rather tight opponent. With 75% FE the move get's pretty profitable. Your thoughts on this rational?
      Incidentally, it seems that folding 75% of the time when you only raise around 7% is excessively cautious - is that fair?

      TIA
  • 6 replies
    • goldflair03
      goldflair03
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2008 Posts: 1,957
      villain folds to 3bet 75% (7 in 9 cases)
      no sample size

      even if he folds 75% in average he'll never folds 75% from 7%pfr in mp
      the high fto3betaverage could also come from thight restealcalls
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      So too risky then, with insufficient stats?

      With what sort of sample size would you consider this move?

      Thanks
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      f23bet is a very tricky stat because it depends a lot on which position villain is raising from. We really can't take it as reference here with so few cases.

      You should judge by villain's PFR, consider yourself what range villain would fold and what he should call within reason. As his range is apparently an SSS range, it's easy to know. 75% is too much imo, 50% is more likely.

      And with 50% FE you get:

      EV = 0.5 * 3.5 + 0.5 (0.3 * 37 - 18.5) = -1.95 so it's not such a good idea :D
    • goldflair03
      goldflair03
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2008 Posts: 1,957
      the thing is that u cant take the average3bet cause he includes blindbattlespots
      and there will be a huge difference in reacting on 3bets in utg,mp (7%) and(33%pfr) in stealpositions.
      if u just have the elephant i woud advise u to give him a thinking 3betcallingrange like 33% or 50% with TT+, ako
    • ysessa
      ysessa
      Basic
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 1,331
      the biggest difference will be in his fold3bet against sss players compared to his fold3bet against bss players... lets just say he raises jj from mp1 then a bigstack 3bets, he will usually fold his hand, but against an sss player he will call your shove anytime.. so very easy fold.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Ah. Yes, I hadn't considered that - thanks.