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[NL20-NL50] NL50SH is bluff here profitable?

    • silent21
      Joined: 08.08.2008 Posts: 1,556
      UTG ($36.30)
      Button ($73.35)
      SB ($51.75)
      Hero (BB) ($53.60)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A:diamond: , 4:diamond:
      2 folds, SB bets $2, Hero calls $1.50

      Flop: ($4) 7:spade: , K:diamond: , 5:spade: (2 players)
      SB bets $3, Hero raises to $9, SB calls $6

      Turn: ($22) 5:diamond: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($22) 6:spade: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $16 ?

      Villian is unknown Tag 28/24 over 50 Hands.
  • 1 reply
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      This is a steal situation and your opponent is a tag/slag, when you flat preflop and raise the flop what's going through his head is "he's bluffing". Always. Depending on the player he will or will not fight you for it, but he knows it. Here he peeled out of position, unless he's very tough he probably has Kx or some stubborn QQ-JJ.

      The turn is pretty awful for you, and will reinforce the idea that you don't have a set in his mind. Coupled with the fact that you probably don't flat good Kx preflop and he likely has a K himself, he'll only put you on a flush draw or air from then on, which means he'll call the blank turn with whatever he has if you bet again.

      As played the flush gets there on the river after you checked behind the turn, but your opponent probably knows that you will bluff that card with your air after you raised the flop and checked behind the turn. Since he only has to look you up on one more street to see the showdown, it's easier for him to hero call you. It's a grayish area, i think you play is fine whether he actually ended up calling or not.

      I think you'll get looked up somewhat often by people unwilling to fold Kx in a blind battle heads-up, Kaitz thinks most of the tags at nl50 don't have the stomach to call that river bet with Kx. Take your pick =)

      Another option for you on that turn is to just bet again with your diamond redraw to make the pot bigger, and shove any diamond/spade/A river. That way if he looks you up it will be for his entire stack, and he can probably fold Kx for that price. I would probably forget about other river cards, he just won't believe you for a boat on a blank imo.

      The only problem i see with that is the turn bet sizing against a range of Kx. If we bet small we aren't committed against a turn check/raise but if he only calls it sucks as we have to give it up on a blank river. If we bet big we are committed against the turn c/r but have no fold equity on the river for a half potsize bet left when he just calls and a spade hits.

      Hope it helps.