My thick green line is retarded!

    • Kruppe
      Kruppe
      Black
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,144
      i really think there is something wrong with my thick green line, it's really having trouble keeping up with the thin one.



      all $1/2 capNL, all-in EV is at about $3100 fwiw, so about 50 stacks above the thick green line

      is there any medication or therapy you can recommend for my thick green line?
  • 11 replies
    • Yoghi
      Yoghi
      Black
      Joined: 10.09.2007 Posts: 14,387
      Play better so variance doesn't have as much effect on you
    • Kruppe
      Kruppe
      Black
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,144
      well i tried playing better and it didn't work. i should probably try playing worse now.
    • ihufa
      ihufa
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      if yoghi took a huge dump on you, then maybe some rungood will transfer
    • alejandrosh
      alejandrosh
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.07.2008 Posts: 4,346
      start playing with 100bb instead of cap games so you are not all in all the time?
    • Yoghi
      Yoghi
      Black
      Joined: 10.09.2007 Posts: 14,387
      Just play more, I actually think the line is bugged, I've never seen somebody run good over a big sample.
    • Kruppe
      Kruppe
      Black
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,144
      just in case your comments aren't subtle levels, yoghi:

      i am playing better. the first half of the graph is from january through march, then i took several breaks in which i improved my play, and the last 20k hands are from this month. i'm actually crushing it atm, as the attainable winrates in capNL are much lower than in 100BB NL, and the way the thin green line is going up suggests that there might only be a handful of players who are playing better than me atm.

      and the variance is having zero effect on me, as i know i'm owning my opponents and i use extremely nitty BRM

      and the lines aren't bugged, lol


      and @ alejandrosh: playing 100BB poker would reduce the difference between the all-in EV line and the winnings line, but imo having a much bigger stack will increase the difference betweenthe all-in EV line and my actual EV. so it's a trade-off between the all-in EV line being close to actual EV and winnings being close to all-in EV.
    • Yoghi
      Yoghi
      Black
      Joined: 10.09.2007 Posts: 14,387
      First one wasn't serious, last one was kind of.

      I have really never ever seen somebody who ran hot over a big sample, and it just makes me wonder how it's possible. It can be right 99%, but lots of small things could already make it go way off over a bigger sample.

      Say for example you put 99% of your stack in preflop with AA vs KK.

      Flop is KKA and you go allin, you put 99% of your stack in behind but I think it will count the allin as you being way behind and your EV like 4% of the pot, not the 80% you deserve by playing this way.
    • justkyle88
      justkyle88
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 7,569
      Originally posted by Yoghi
      First one wasn't serious, last one was kind of.

      I have really never ever seen somebody who ran hot over a big sample, and it just makes me wonder how it's possible. It can be right 99%, but lots of small things could already make it go way off over a bigger sample.

      Say for example you put 99% of your stack in preflop with AA vs KK.

      Flop is KKA and you go allin, you put 99% of your stack in behind but I think it will count the allin as you being way behind and your EV like 4% of the pot, not the 80% you deserve by playing this way.
      Exaxtly what I was thinking. Should it only be 100% correct if you have 100% of your stack in?
    • Yoghi
      Yoghi
      Black
      Joined: 10.09.2007 Posts: 14,387
      It's allin EV, so it will only count when you're allin. Who knows how hot you might have run in pots where nobody went allin.
    • justkyle88
      justkyle88
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 7,569
      Originally posted by Yoghi
      It's allin EV, so it will only count when you're allin. Who knows how hot you might have run in pots where nobody went allin.
      You can get this from non-showdown though right?
    • Kruppe
      Kruppe
      Black
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,144
      no, there's no graph that shows how far the all-in EV is above or below your EV



      Originally posted by Yoghi
      First one wasn't serious, last one was kind of.

      I have really never ever seen somebody who ran hot over a big sample, and it just makes me wonder how it's possible. It can be right 99%, but lots of small things could already make it go way off over a bigger sample.

      Say for example you put 99% of your stack in preflop with AA vs KK.

      Flop is KKA and you go allin, you put 99% of your stack in behind but I think it will count the allin as you being way behind and your EV like 4% of the pot, not the 80% you deserve by playing this way.
      yes, but the all-in EV line isn't meant to reflect that stuff. in fact the so-called 'all-in EV' graph doesn't actually display all-in EV, it just displays hand vs hand equity-adjusted winnings, which for the reasons you mentioned is different from the EV, even in hands where you're all-in.

      i have a 120k hand graph from another limit where i'm 20 stacks or something above the allin EV line at the end. things like what you described in the example can go the other way too.