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[NL2-NL10] NL4SH AJo

    • CronTheFish
      Joined: 24.02.2009 Posts: 2,819
      $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Holdem
      5 players
      Converted at

      UTG ($4.69)
      Hero (CO) ($4.80)
      BTN ($4.29)
      SB ($4.15) = vp:41/pfr:15/af:4.5/wts:38/w$sd:50/h:46
      BB ($1.14)

      Pre-flop: ($0.06, 5 players) Hero is CO J:spade: A:diamond:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $0.16, 1 fold, SB calls $0.14, 1 fold

      Flop: 7:diamond: J:club: 3:club: ($0.36, 2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.20, SB calls $0.20

      Turn: 7:heart: ($0.76, 2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.40, SB raises to $0.80, Hero calls $0.40

      River: T:diamond: ($2.36, 2 players)
      SB bets $2.97, Hero folds

      Final Pot: $2.36

      SB wins $5.23 ( won +$1.10 )
      Hero lost -$1.16
  • 2 replies
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      I think i'd bet more on the flop with TPTK, there is a flushdraw out there and seeing this guy's stats i don't think he'd care the extra money, so it's time to get value.

      The turn isn't a great card, this guy could very well have 7x/33 in his hand he is loose enough preflop. The minraise is usually a sign of strength on the turn, i think he would have raise another Jx right on the flop if he was going to. He might be bluffing but without having seen him do it before it's probably not a good idea to put him on a bluff in that spot. Still, with position and given that this guy is very aggressive, calling his minraise to reevaluate on the river is reasonable.

      When he open shoves the river not much has changed, it's still not out of the question that he is overplaying another Jx or bluffing, but finding out just became a lot more expensive. You are getting ~36% pot odds and you have ~34% equity against a range like

      { 33, A7s, KJs, QJs, JTs, 87s, 76s, A7o, KJo, QJo, JTo, 87o, 76o } non including any bluffs

      Given that it's nl4, that the fish love to play broadway cards, and that there is always a chance he's bluffing, i'd say you can still call without sweating it too much, even tho mathematically it's probably a break even play at best and folding is better.

      Hope it helps.
    • CronTheFish
      Joined: 24.02.2009 Posts: 2,819
      Thanks a lot ; )