[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH TT got 3beted

    • mrxLT
      Joined: 02.09.2008 Posts: 435
      $0.1/$0.25 Deep No Limit Holdem
      6 players

      UTG ($38.94)
      UTG+1 ($43.92)
      CO ($135.58)
      Hero (BTN) ($25.00)
      SB ($34.37)------28/21/2.5 3bet 31% (4/13) 40hands
      BB ($47.20)

      Pre-flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is BTN T:diamond: T:spade:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $1, SB raises to $3.25, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.25

      Flop: Q:club: 5:heart: 7:diamond: ($6.75, 2 players)
      SB bets $5, Hero calls $5

      Turn: 9:heart: ($16.75, 2 players)
      SB bets $9, Hero folds

      I was really tight on this tabe in those 40 hands. And he was 3beting alot as you can see.
      4bet/go broke PF?
      Can i call one bet on such a flop?
  • 1 reply
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      Regs with high 3bet% usually won't go broke light, most of them will instantly dump anything worse than AK/JJ+ when you 4bet in that spot, you getting it in light is usually exactly what they want. This means that you have to do some math on how often you pickup the pot uncontested and how that compares to the times where you get it in as a big underdog preflop.

      In a nutshell, 30% 3bet is insanely high and it will probably drop to at worse 15% on a large sample. If they go broke with AK/JJ+ this means they fold 12% of their range and go broke with the top 3%. Respectively you win $4.5 dead money or get it in as a 2:1 underdog for $24 more playing for a total pot of $50.5.

      EV ~= (12/15)*4.5 + (3/15)*( 0.33*50.5 - 24 ) ~= +2.133

      So this is still profitable to go broke with TT in that spot, provided his 3bet% holds over 15% and his broke range isn't even tighter than JJ+/AK. And also that you don't get leveled into going broke exactly when he wants you to :p

      You having a really tight image can go both ways, that usually means you can be abused most of the time with 3bets, and also that when you 4bet you have the goods. You can probably adapt the maths to him going broke with only QQ+/AK against you.

      As played i think calling preflop is fine, you get to keep in all his air hands. Calling the flop is mandatory given that he could have a lot of air in this spot and will c-bet that flop almost always.

      The turn bet is the usual problem, it's somewhat small but he doesn't need to make it big whether he's bluffing or not. Since laggish players will usually fire in that spot with air too i think both calling him down and folding the turn are possible. It's hard to get enough stats for that in 3bet pots to make an informed decision.

      Hope it helps.