[NL20-NL50] NL50sh KJs tp+fd

    • armo
      armo
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.03.2008 Posts: 451
      villain is kind of nit

      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $45,90
      Hero:
      $59,10

      0,25/0,5 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with K:heart: , J:heart:
      4 folds, SB raises to $1,50, Hero calls $1,00.

      Flop: ($3,00) J:spade: , 4:diamond: , T:heart: (2 players)
      SB bets $2,40, Hero calls $2,40.

      Turn: ($7,80) 3:heart: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $5,00, SB raises to $17,00, Hero raises to $55,20 (All-In), SB calls $25,00 (All-In), Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      what do do after his c/r on turn? push turn or call and fold river unimproved?
  • 6 replies
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      I discuss with tamairlarace about this hand. He thinks his line is either a set or QQ+.
      Shoving gives you ~ 0% FE. He never folds after this c/r.
      Against this range however you are getting the right implied odds to call.
      to call turn and check unimproved.
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Play looks allright at first glance but Villain Is extremely tight. I'd be interested to see what Range Judges put him on here as well as the line they would take.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Not really sure his c/r range is QQ+
      I thin sometimes he´d also show draw himself and since you´re ahead all of his draws I like shoving more than just calling.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,


      If you shove you'll get max value out of draws and get it in semibad/bad against all the rest, but it'll be easier to play.

      I think players that are so tight preflop often have a hard time folding big pairs because they play so few hands. An overpair postflop becomes the nuts to them, which is why i think he can also take that line with QQ+ as well as the obvious sets, which is why i think you can call with odds to draw out on those. If you only put sets as made hands in his range, lean toward folding unless you think he does that with lots of draws.

      Personally I don't think you see a draw here that often, the only ones that comes to mind would be the AhQh redraw, maybe AhTh. I expect him to either just fire again on the turn or c/f with a flopped OESD. The more you think he's pot committing himself with a draw just to exploit your floats BBvsSB, the more you wanna shove here, but I just don't see it happening from that player often enough at nl50.


      Hope it helps.
    • armo
      armo
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.03.2008 Posts: 451
      Thx for input everyone!

      I don't think he can be given range of TT/JJ, that would be too tight

      Played around with equilator
      if he c/r turn only with overpair or better

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 73,782% 73,782% 0,000% 26,218% 44,TT+,JT
      Player 2: 26,218% 26,218% 0,000% 73,782% KhJh


      If added some strong draws things are still bad
      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 70,530% 70,530% 0,000% 29,470% 44,TT+,JT,AhQh,9h8h
      Player 2: 29,470% 29,470% 0,000% 70,530% KhJh



      If added things overcards+gutshot and oesd then the push becomes profitable
      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 38,340% 38,340% 0,000% 61,660% 44,TT+,AJ+,KQ,JT,98
      Player 2: 61,660% 61,660% 0,000% 38,340% KhJh

      So basically if I think he does not have draws in has range I barely have implied odds to call turn and push river if I improve to flush/two pair/trips and folding is also ok option?
      If I think this guy will also have draws in his range then just ship it on turn tight?
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,


      If you were playing higher stakes against some kind of tough regular you'd have a mandatory shove, he'd mess with you with a lot more stuff and you'd show him right there that you're ready to fight back any time.

      Against that nit at nl50 tho, it's purely on a hand to hand basis and you summed it up pretty well.

      - Calling with implieds is possible only if you think he has enough made hands there to warrant drawing on the river, which means you have to believe that he somehow got there with an overpair too once in a while.

      - If he's purely got sets and two pairs folding is best.

      - If he can do that with draws than you wanna shove over since he committed himself and you have the best hand right now.

      I think it's close no matter what you do, people sometimes go crazy in blind battles. Since we don't know that he would do that with overpairs and draws all the time, I'd only give him a few combos of those, something like

      { TT, 44, JT, JJ, QdQc, AdAc, AhQh, KcQc, KdQd } for around 32% equity



      Hope it helps.