[NL2-NL10] NL 50 AJo, raised all in @ flop

    • hongchang
      hongchang
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.04.2009 Posts: 11
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)

      Known players:
      SB:
      $28.75
      BB:
      $10.50
      MP1:
      $10.00
      MP2:
      $50.75
      MP3:
      $47.85
      CO:
      $65.45
      BU(Hero):
      $10.30


      Preflop: Hero is BU with J, A.
      2 folds, MP3 calls $0.50, CO folds, Hero raises to $2.00, 2 folds, MP3 calls $1.50.

      Flop: ($4.75) 8, 2, T (2 players)
      MP3 bets $1.50, Hero raises to $8.30(All-In), MP3 folds, Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $6.25.

      Villian's stats are :

      90/5 for Vpip/pfr
      7 for AF
      24 hands

      I concluded that the opponent is loose, and very aggressive, although i have too few hands.

      When he bets into me, my thoughts are that he is bluffing me, because of his rather high AF. Also, he could be betting aggressively with a straight draw.

      Even with a medium pair or top pair, i figured that i had 6 outs for my overcards, and a backdoor straight draw. Along with the fold equity i could generate with my all in, i made the move.

      However, i am not exactly sure whether this is the right action to take, or just fold.
  • 2 replies
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Well, 7 is indeed a very high AF for someone who plays 90% of pots. So I find your move reasonable enough.

      I don't think you have sufficient outs if villain did have a hand, but he will only have a hand max 1/3 of the time here I think, so in 2/3 of cases you get good FE. If that's right, you make $overall in this spot.

      So, nh, with your reads.
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey hongchang,

      24 hands is very small sample size, specially for AF which is one of the stats that needs most hands for accuracy.

      However, if you saw this villain playing as maniac then you did well to shove, but according just to stats(24 hands only), I would be a bit more cautious and fold as he could have hit a piece of this board with his wide range.

      Regards,
      burek2000