[NL2-NL10] nl400 44 vs River bet

    • wuusaa
      Joined: 15.05.2007 Posts: 455
      $2 SB / $4 BB - 8 handed[/b]
      Seat 2: BB ($68)
      Seat 4: UTG3 ($103.80)
      Seat 5: MP ($398)
      Seat 6: MP2 ($577)
      Seat 7: MP3 ($407.40)
      Seat 8: [color=#0000ff]Hero[/color]($80.90)
      Seat 9: BU ($54.26)(DEALER)
      Seat 10: SB ($1439)

      Dealt to Hero: 4:spade: 4:heart:

      SB posts SB, BB posts BB
      sits out, [color=#7d7d7d]4 folds[/color], Hero raises to $10, [color=#7d7d7d]BU folds[/color], SB calls $8, [color=#7d7d7d]BB folds[/color]

      SB stats:
      14/6; AF 4.8 AFq 62 WTS 32

      Flop(Pot: $24):
      2:club: 7:club: 8:diamond:
      SB checks, Hero bets $12, SB calls $12

      Turn(Pot: $48):
      2:club: 7:club: 8:diamond: ,7:heart:
      SB checks, Hero checks

      River(Pot: $48):
      2:club: 7:club: 8:diamond: ,7:heart: ,5:spade:
      SB bets $36, Hero calls $36

      Total Pot: $120
  • 2 replies
    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,008
      Ok, what can villain have?

      1. 2 pair, e.g. 7,8
      2. busted flush draw
      3. 22
      4. another medium pocket pair that has us beat
      5. overcards - i.e. nothing
      6. a monster - but then a 3 bet on the flop seems more likely as it's a little drawy.

      Well, if it's #2 or #5 we can call. The others have us beat.

      A hand like 55 seems possible. He might well call on this flop -which he'll assume you haven't hit - and hits trips on the river so bets.

      On the other hand his stats say he bets the river in 50% of cases, which seems high to me. And generally he seems aggressive which speaks for a call. Somehow the river bet looks more like a bluff than a value bet - I would expect more like 1/2 pot for that.
    • ysessa
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 1,331
      since he seems to be tight and can easily have some kind of overpairs i would give up the river despite the fact that all draws are busted, but its definitly no leak to call from time to time here.