[NL2-NL10] NL50 AJs in mp1 with 13bb

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $9.50
      Hero:
      $6.50

      0.25/0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A:heart: , J:heart:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $6.50 (All-In), 4 folds, SB raises to $9.50 (All-In), BB folds.

      Flop: ($16.50) 4:heart: , 7:club: , 5:diamond:
      Turn: ($16.50) 3:heart:
      River: ($16.50) 4:spade: (1 players)


      Final Pot: $16.50

      If I am going to play this hand from this position, is it best to push pf with reduced stack as played? Or, should I raise normally?
      Thanks,
      Tim
  • 7 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      MP1 is openshove but these actions increases your variance a lot which you have to compensate by playing alot :)

      - Gerv
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      He Gerv,

      Can you explain why playing more has an effect on variance?

      Thanks,

      Tim
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Hi Gerv - can you respond when you have a mo? I've marked for your attention this time.

      Thanks,
      Tim
    • RahXephon1
      RahXephon1
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2009 Posts: 972
      It's very simple, over a bigger sample your variance will decrease. When you have a smaller edge you need a much bigger sample to be ahead. If you are 55% ahead and have only 10 tries you could be very behind. If you have 5000 you should be ahead everytime.

      You can also calculate how close you will get to an expected result, with enough tries.

      Standard deviation
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      You put in more chips than you normally would from this position with AJs with no indication of ranges of villains behind you, and you have a smaller edge -----> Higher Variance.

      You play is fine imo, just rebuy asap. NL50 there is no point in playing reduced stack as I'm sure you know :D
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by RahXephon1
      It's very simple, over a bigger sample your variance will decrease. When you have a smaller edge you need a much bigger sample to be ahead. If you are 55% ahead and have only 10 tries you could be very behind. If you have 5000 you should be ahead everytime.

      You can also calculate how close you will get to an expected result, with enough tries.

      Standard deviation
      This because this is simple Statistics & mathematics (Sd Dev. - Variance formula etc. etc.)

      I personally do not really like High variance moves with (obv.) small edges since only hardcore grinders will be profitable in the end due their high volume

      - Gerv
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      This because this is simple Statistics & mathematics (Sd Dev. - Variance formula etc. etc.)


      I think we should not assume that all players posting on this forum are mathematically minded and familiar with these concepts.

      I can only speak for myself, of course, but my background is Arts, not Sciences, and such things do not come naturally for me.

      edit: ok; I've had a look at the article on std dev now and I see what you are saying. Thankyou.