[NL2-NL10] NL50 99 big pot

    • Natasa74
      Joined: 30.01.2009 Posts: 20
      Was it alright to push.. was it +EV?

      Known players:

      0,25/0,5 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9:diamond: , 9:spade:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $2,00, MP2 calls $2,00, MP3 folds, CO raises to $10,00 (All-In), BU calls $6,70 (All-In), 2 folds, Hero calls $8,50 (All-In), MP2 folds.

      Flop: ($29,95) 2:diamond: , 2:club: , 4:club:
      Turn: ($29,95) 2:spade:
      River: ($29,95) 5:spade: (3 players)

      Final Pot: $29,95
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      your pot odds might have improved but your equity certainly dropped much more than your odds.

      with 2 people already in the pot, and one more acting behind you, you can be sure than one of them already has an over pair (which would mean that your equity would be around 15-18%, while you would have to invest 25% of the pot if there were four people in the pot)

      CO is obviously a SSS player, he has VPIP/PFR of 9/8 and his range is going to be AK/QQ+. BU looks like a tight/passive fish but when he coldcalls a 3betshove, you can be sure that you're screwed as well.

      Just muck the hand and save yourself the trouble.
    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,514
      I probably would have called this myself, but I think mbml makes a convincing argument and that your equity is not enough for the shove - an over pair held by at least one opponent looks probable.
    • burek2000
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey Natasha74,

      CO looks like a SSS player, therefore I would put him on JJ+/AK. BU looks fishier, but I still think he doesn't go broke with more than 10%. So, against those two ranges you get 21% equity with 99, but you need 28.5% break even equity. Fold is the best option here. Even if opponents are somewhat looser this is going to be a variance rich shove and most likely still -EV.