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[NL20-NL50] QJo Nl25

    • wlodi18
      Joined: 28.05.2007 Posts: 316
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($18.66)
      BB ($29.50)
      UTG ($72.64)
      UTG+1 ($9.84)
      CO ($26.93)
      Hero ($48.83)

      Dealt to Hero J:heart: Q:diamond:

      fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, fold, Hero raises to $1.25, fold, BB calls $1, UTG+1 calls $1

      FLOP ($3.85) 9:club: Q:club: Q:heart:

      BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $2.25, BB raises to $6, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $3.75

      TURN ($15.85) 9:club: Q:club: Q:heart: 8:club:

      BB bets $9, Hero folds

      BB 29/23 3bet 0 fold to cbet 33% raise cbet 33% WTS 42 AF 1,3 only 82hands

      easy push flop or no?

      I suspect his raising range:

      Hand 0: 66.527% { QdJh }
      Hand 1: 33.473% { KK, 99, Ac9c, Ac7c, KQs, QJs, JcTc, AQo, A9o, KQo, QTo }

      It's wide if I reraise here I suppose he call me only:

      Hand 0: 27.677% { QdJh }
      Hand 1: 72.323% { 99, Ac9c, KQs, QJs, JcTc, AQo, KQo }

      so I dont know maybe line b/c flop i raise non turn is ok?
  • 1 reply
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      I'm torn between two thoughts there.

      The first one is that not everybody is gonna raise a flushdraw on a paired board into the pfa and a shortstacked fish, especially since he seems rather passive after 80 hands, and he'd probably just flat 99 to keep the fish drawing dead in the pot. So i think you're looking at another Qx there more often than you think, and chances are he's got a better kicker since he'd only flat QJ KQ AQ and maybe sometimes QT there preflop, although he might 3bet AQ preflop.

      The second one is that i don't really see a good way to play against that range and yet your hand is too strong to fold in my opinion since it's always possible he indeed played some draw that way.

      Overall since giving away a cheap turn will only hurt us and we'll probably never get away against better Qx i think you should just 3bet that on the flop, call a shove and move on if you get coolered.

      Hope it helps.