Coin-flipping post-flop

    • Dragar
      Dragar
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.09.2008 Posts: 2,214
      Ok sometimes these situations come that your aware your opponent has a draw with overs or something like that. You are a very slight dog should you go all in with TP or low overpair or something like that. You have already bet into the pot and villain decided to raise it. Whats your move? Do you push all-in? Do you fold? I am not really sure anymore because why commit any more chips into a pot where you behiind anyway even if its only like 1.5% or so?

      Here is an example:

      $0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
      5 players
      Converted at weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG Hero ($66.82)
      CO Tony_D007 ($75.04)
      BTN xavicris ($92.18)
      SB LepariaONE ($76.05)
      BB agentnova1 ($48.75)

      Pre-flop: ($0.75, 5 players) Hero is UTG T:diamond: T:club:
      Hero raises to $2, Tony_D007 calls $2, 2 folds, agentnova1 calls $1.50

      Main Pot ($6.25)
      Hero: 64.10% (EV = $2.01)
      agentnova1: 35.90% (EV = $0.24)

      Flop: 9:spade: 8:heart: 6:heart: ($6.25, 3 players)
      agentnova1 checks, Hero bets $4, Tony_D007 folds, agentnova1 raises to $18.25, Hero raises to $64.82, agentnova1 calls $28.50

      Main Pot ($99.75)
      Hero: 48.80% (EV = -$0.07)
      agentnova1: 51.20% (EV = $4.32)

      Side Pot #1 ($18.07)
      Hero: 100.00% (EV = $0.00)

      Turn: 7:club: ($117.82, 2 players)

      Main Pot ($99.75)
      Hero: 39.80% (EV = $39.70)
      agentnova1: 60.20% (EV = $60.05)

      Side Pot #1 ($18.07)
      Hero: 100.00% (EV = $18.07)

      River: Q:club: ($117.82, 2 players)

      Main Pot ($99.75)
      Hero: 50.00% (EV = $49.88)
      agentnova1: 50.00% (EV = $49.88)

      Side Pot #1 ($18.07)
      Hero: 100.00% (EV = $18.07)

      Final Pot: $117.82
      agentnova1 shows: K:heart: T:heart:
      Hero shows: T:diamond: T:club:

      agentnova1 wins $49.13 ( won +$0.38 )
      Hero wins $67.19 ( won +$0.37 )
      Tony_D007 lost -$2

      I think I should have folded, I pushed last minute because I put him on a draw. But even if he has the draw... I am still behind and getting my money in behind. Should we just fold in these situations?

      Here is another scenario where I push:

      $0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
      5 players
      Converted at weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG PlzDontClick ($60.06)
      CO Hero ($99.70)
      BTN MR ANABOL ($49.25)
      SB Thai_Devils ($32.03)
      BB -EatMyAss- ($101.40)

      Pre-flop: ($0.75, 5 players) Hero is CO Q:club: K:club:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, Thai_Devils raises to $3.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50

      Main Pot ($7.50)
      Hero: 48.90% (EV = $0.17)
      Thai_Devils: 51.10% (EV = $0.33)

      Flop: 2:club: 3:heart: 3:club: ($7.50, 2 players)
      Thai_Devils bets $7.50, Hero raises to $96.20, Thai_Devils calls $21.03

      Main Pot ($64.56)
      Hero: 48.70% (EV = -$0.59)
      Thai_Devils: 51.30% (EV = $4.59)

      Side Pot #1 ($67.67)
      Hero: 100.00% (EV = $0.00)

      Turn: 7:diamond: ($132.23, 2 players)

      Main Pot ($64.56)
      Hero: 31.80% (EV = $20.53)
      Thai_Devils: 68.20% (EV = $44.03)

      Side Pot #1 ($67.67)
      Hero: 100.00% (EV = $67.67)

      River: Q:spade: ($132.23, 2 players)

      Main Pot ($64.56)
      Hero: 100.00% (EV = $64.56)
      Thai_Devils: 0.00% (EV = $0.00)

      Side Pot #1 ($67.67)
      Hero: 100.00% (EV = $67.67)

      Final Pot: $132.23
      Thai_Devils shows: 8:spade: 8:heart:
      Hero shows: Q:club: K:club:

      Hero wins $130.73 ( won +$31.03 )
      Thai_Devils lost -$32.03

      I do it more for FE here.

      The thing is.... is flipping post-flop alright?
      I am not that big of a fan for it because its just so high variance, but if we commit chips to the pot like in the first hand, are we obliged to flip?

      The thing is if your opponent is indeed on such a big draw, your FE is at 0.
  • 1 reply
    • nafar84
      nafar84
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.09.2008 Posts: 546
      It is correct to push even if you have 48% equity because there is already enough money in the pot to give you the right odds.

      Of course, this assumes that you're 100% sure that villain has the kind of hand that you put him on, but in reality you have to think of ranges that include sets, straights, bigger overpairs etc.. so the best thing to do is to practice various situations using PokerStove or Equilator and see what kind of equity you have against their range.