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Big Hands: How much should they return?

    • Waiboy
      Joined: 18.09.2008 Posts: 4,877
      I'm copying a post from my blog, because I'd like some decent feedback on the performance of big hands from other players.

      By big hands I mean QQ+, AQ+ - ignore the fact JJ > AQ.. I couldn't be bothered picking them all out and PT3 conveniently lists the Ax hands together.

      Since 1 July (approx 12.5k hands) my WTS/W$SD is 38.4/55.35 and I've run at -2.61BB/100. The WTS is a little high so possibly I'm not folding beaten hands often enough in these big pots so I figured I check how much value I'm getting from this premium range.

      Hand, Times dealt, Win %age, WTS, W$SD, BB/hand

      AA: 68, 72%, 75%, 59%, 1.66BB

      AKs: 37, 70%, 29%, 50%, 0.48BB

      AKo: 102, 50%, 52%, 46%, -0.16BB

      AQs: 42, 48%, 56%, 52%, 0.49BB

      AQo: 130, 47%, 54%, 52%, 0.16BB

      KK: 48, 63%, 72%, 55% 1.11BB

      QQ: 63, 70%, 68%, 55%, 1.15BB

      I'm not 100% sure, but I'm guessing this is pretty sick. Especially when AA which is, at worst, 80% to win pre flop. And QQ winning more than KK and only slightly lower than AA. AKo is clearly being very badly played. :f_mad:

      And I guess sample size is small, but I'm trying to determine the extent to which my losses might be attributable to variance and how much to bad play. I'm assuming for the sake of argument that I'm not overplaying these hands, or folding them incorrectly as there can't be too many situations where this might happen over this sample size.

      Yes, I know this assumption could be a little too much because I'm a muppet, but I prefer to think I'm more Scooter than Gonzo. :f_eek:

      Sooo.. how do these win rates compare to you other folks out there in FL land? Anything stick out or suggest itself from a look at these stats?
  • 8 replies
    • AugustusCaesar
      Joined: 24.05.2008 Posts: 377
      Well 68 hand with AA is nothing .. You can make no conclusion from that
    • redskwerl
      Joined: 03.03.2008 Posts: 3,812
      Sample is about 130k hands from a bunch of different limits that I played this yr. Note that I only filtered out HU hands, so this is 3-10 handed (and most of it 4-6).

      AA won:83.4% 2.55BB/100 wts/w$s:62%/73%
      KK won:77.6% 1.74BB/100 wts/w$s:59%/74%
      QQ won:73.6% 1.54BB/100 wts/w$s:62%/61%
      JJ won:66.8% 1.14BB/100 wts/w$s:58%/56%
      TT won:63.0% 0.71BB/100 wts/w$s:58%/52%
      (~580 hand sample)

      AKs won:60.5% 0.51BB/100 wts/w$s:58%/48%
      AQs won:61.5% 0.76BB/100 wts/w$s:54%/53%
      (~385 hand sample)

      AKo won:61.7% 0.56BB/100 wts/w$s:58%/50%
      AQo won:60.8% 0.34BB/100 wts/w$s:54%/48%
      (~1160 hand sample)
    • Waiboy
      Joined: 18.09.2008 Posts: 4,877
      Originally posted by AugustusCaesar
      Well 68 hand with AA is nothing .. You can make no conclusion from that
      Hey AC!

      I'm trying to determine the extent that variance may have impacted on my short term results, so the small sample size is exactly the issue. I want to see how these results compare to long term (and therefore statistically more reliable) win rates.

      @ redskwerl: Thanks dude! :f_biggrin:

      Just a quick calc on difference in value per hand shows some significant value loss...

      Anyone else with some stats to help beef up the sample?
    • DYRD
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 15,939
      My stats: I'm a mediocre player too bored to play less than 20 tables...

    • CoreySteel
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 3,366
      20 tables of Fixed Limit?
    • DarthBobo
      Joined: 09.09.2007 Posts: 1,134
      filtered for 3-6 handed.
      90772 hands in total.
      WTSD 38.7%
      W$SD 51.7%

      Hand, Times dealt, Win %age, WTS, W$SD, BB/hand
      AA: 398, 83.4%, 62.6%, 71.8%, 2.25BB
      AKs: 293, 58.7%, 48,0%, 51.2%, 0.51BB
      AKo: 856, 62.1%, 51.2%, 58.0%, 0.68BB
      AQs: 299, 61.9%, 49.6%, 61.2%, 0.79BB
      AQo: 830, 57.5%, 49.5%, 51.0%, 0.25BB
      KK: 397: 75.8%, 60.5%, 64.3%, 1.7BB
      QQ: 409, 69.2%, 64.0%, 57.9%, 1.24BB
    • DarthBobo
      Joined: 09.09.2007 Posts: 1,134
      Something I noticed is that you bring QQ,KK,AA a lot more to showdown than me.
    • chuongdk
      Joined: 22.03.2009 Posts: 210
      from my 120k hands,