Can someone help me?

    • eszibit
      eszibit
      Silver
      Joined: 10.12.2007 Posts: 1,964
      Hi guys ,i'm having a really bad week and i wondered if anyone can help me understand this pokertracker graphic. As i understand it in the first ten thousand hands i made more than i was supposed to and now i'm having a downsing since the EV is above what i actually won.Is this correct? And does anyone know how is this calculated? I've been posting some hands on the forum and it doesn't seem like i'm making many mistakes...any feedback would be appreciated.
  • 5 replies
    • cubbybri
      cubbybri
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2007 Posts: 93
      I'm not a NL pro but I'm pretty sure I can explain the graph. When the money goes all-in, the blue line shows how often you SHOULD be winning. The green line shows if you did win. So getting it in preflop with AA(or any favourite) and getting sucked out would make your graph look kind of the way it does.

      This is all short term luck, so you are getting it in good it looks like but the cards have not been in your favour.

      AS for making mistakes.... I would say, it is hard to say for sure. Obviously when you get it in it looks you are ahead a lot but there are always leaks in ones game(even if small) so this would be a good time to work on those and when the luck of the cards comes back to your favour, you'll be able to make even more $$.

      Someone else may be able to explain better but the graph is really saying you're having a bad run of variance.
    • eszibit
      eszibit
      Silver
      Joined: 10.12.2007 Posts: 1,964
      10x,that's what i was thinking. Offcourse my game is far from perfect ..but i had a pretty bad run and you know how you start to doubt your every move :) .
    • cubbybri
      cubbybri
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2007 Posts: 93
      I'm not a NL pro but I'm pretty sure I can explain the graph. When the money goes all-in, the blue line shows how often you SHOULD be winning. The green line shows if you did win. So getting it in preflop with AA(or any favourite) and getting sucked out would make your graph look kind of the way it does.

      This is all short term luck, so you are getting it in good it looks like but the cards have not been in your favour.

      AS for making mistakes.... I would say, it is hard to say for sure. Obviously when you get it in it looks you are ahead a lot but there are always leaks in ones game(even if small) so this would be a good time to work on those and when the luck of the cards comes back to your favour, you'll be able to make even more $$.

      Someone else may be able to explain better but the graph is really saying you're having a bad run of variance.

      As for calculating.. better someone else answer as I think I know but do not want to mislead.
    • eszibit
      eszibit
      Silver
      Joined: 10.12.2007 Posts: 1,964
      cash game downswing..but tourneys are great,came 1st in 2000$ freezout 700$ and 5-th in 2000$ rebuy 175$ playing the same time :P . Seems like the poker gods don't hate me :D
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      The EV line works like this:

      Say you're all in with someone for a total pot of $10.
      You have 80% chance to win with your hand, the opponent has 20% chance to win the hand.
      According to HEM then $8 (80%) of the pot belongs to you and $2 (20%) of the pot belongs to the opponent.
      So basically if you would have a graph with only this hand and you won it, then you are running above the EV line.

      Remember though that EV line doesn't take into account coolers, missing flops a lot and such so there is much more to variance than what the EV line shows.