[NL2-NL10] 99 nl200

    • PanDuzePE
      PanDuzePE
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2007 Posts: 5,467
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $2(BB) Full Tilt
      SB ($201)
      BB ($45.70)
      UTG ($42.55)
      Hero ($40)
      UTG+2 ($97.15)
      MP1 ($28.90)
      CO ($145)
      BTN ($290)

      Dealt to Hero 9:diamond: 9:club:

      fold, Hero raises to $7, fold, fold, CO calls $7, fold, fold, fold

      FLOP ($17) 7:diamond: 6:heart: 5:diamond:

      Hero bets $12, CO calls $12

      TURN ($41) 7:diamond: 6:heart: 5:diamond: A:club:

      Hero bets $21 (AI), CO calls $21

      RIVER ($83) 7:diamond: 6:heart: 5:diamond: A:club: 2:club:

      960 hands
      26/6 cc : 27


      af 2/2/9 fold to cbet : 44


      SB is ok ? or A is too scared card for us ?

      maybe just check/fold or check/call small bet?


      i do sb because i thought that on flop like that he maybe call some gs, oesd oraz FD, i don`t put him on Ax
  • 15 replies
    • Gonzo394
      Gonzo394
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2007 Posts: 2,181
      nh imo.
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      He could have A7 ;)
    • RahXephon1
      RahXephon1
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2009 Posts: 972
      Can you elaborate, why you think there are no Aces in his range, I don't think he would fold an AK/AQ/A8-4 maybe suited on this board. I also don't think he's folding a pocket pair 88+ here and 77-55 already has you beat. All other hands other than KQs, he's probably folding on the flop already.

      I think I would have played the same way and try to scare him with the ace, but that in the long run you are mostly beated.
    • PanDuzePE
      PanDuzePE
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2007 Posts: 5,467
      U really think he will not fold on that scary board cards like AK/AQ/AJ ? Only idiot will not fold this.

      Btw. With AK he will mostly reraise preflop, maybe with AQ too.
    • Gonzo394
      Gonzo394
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2007 Posts: 2,181
      Originally posted by RahXephon1
      Can you elaborate, why you think there are no Aces in his range, I don't think he would fold an AK/AQ/A8-4 maybe suited on this board. I also don't think he's folding a pocket pair 88+ here and 77-55 already has you beat. All other hands other than KQs, he's probably folding on the flop already.

      I think I would have played the same way and try to scare him with the ace, but that in the long run you are mostly beated.
      can we agree, that checking/calling here is obviously wrong?

      because we only get value of the draws he has on the turn, we either have to push or c/f.

      you are right, most of the time we are behind in this spot, but we only need to have 25% equity here to make a profit with a push on the turn.

      Notice that V has in general a 27% coldcall-range. That's enormous.
      Hard to put him on a range though. I still deny him QQ+,AK.

      Still I believe, that on the turn he can have any suited broadway in , any pocketpair 44-JJ (R u serious? no way he's folding 88 here.) Maybe sometimes he calls on the Flop just with a Acehigh, but rarely.


      Board: Ac 7d 6h 5d
      Dead:

      Equity Gewonnen UnentschiedenVerloren Hand
      Spieler 1: 61.271 % 60.250 % 2.041 % 37.709 % 44-JJ, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd,AdQc,AdQs,AdQh,AdJc,AdJh,AdJs
      Spieler 2: 38.729 % 37.709 % 2.041 % 60.250 % 9d9c

      I don't say that this is the range he always has, I'm just saying:
      no way you can get 99 below 25% equity if you give him a realistic range.
    • caroline29632
      caroline29632
      Black
      Joined: 16.02.2009 Posts: 5,794
      Originally posted by Gonzo394
      we only need to have 25% equity here to make a profit with a push on the turn.

      I think you made a mistake. We need 33% EQ. 21/(21+41) not 21/83, you are calculating your own bet double that way.

      Or am i wrong? :)

      EDIT: I agree on the range you give him on the turn. And I think, when you add the FE you create by pushing, this SB is a profitable move.
      So NH?
    • Gonzo394
      Gonzo394
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2007 Posts: 2,181
      Originally posted by caroline29632
      Originally posted by Gonzo394
      we only need to have 25% equity here to make a profit with a push on the turn.

      I think you made a mistake. We need 33% EQ. 21/(21+41) not 21/83, you are calculating your own bet double that way.
      I'm pretty confident that I'm right. =)

      If you invest 20$ for a number of 4 times and out of these 4 times you loose 3 times and you get 80 bucks back only once, you are breakeven. :)
    • caroline29632
      caroline29632
      Black
      Joined: 16.02.2009 Posts: 5,794
      Originally posted by Gonzo394
      I'm pretty confident that I'm right. =)

      If you invest 20$ for a number of 4 times and out of these 4 times you loose 3 times and you get 80 bucks back only once, you are breakeven. :)
      That's so true. Learning all day + beer = - 50% brain :)
    • goldflair03
      goldflair03
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2008 Posts: 1,957
      Originally posted by RahXephon1
      , but that in the long run you are mostly beated.
      flopoverpair against an donkey = nutz :)
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Turncard sucks but if he called you with Ax (as FD or just a naked Ace *lol*) he made the mistake postflop.

      You are committed with the overpair against a donkey here.

      Gonzo explained the mathetmatical part, thanks :)

      Though I hate my life here seeing an Ace on the Turn ^_^ , what I just do is instant shove Turn if this cards comes off :P

      - Gerv
    • poger8
      poger8
      Silver
      Joined: 26.06.2009 Posts: 207
      I'm stunned. Is it forum for SSS or what? By SSS 99 is folded in early position. Period.

      Sorry for boring remarks. Won't bother you more :D
    • Gonzo394
      Gonzo394
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2007 Posts: 2,181
      Originally posted by poger8
      I'm stunned. Is it forum for SSS or what? By SSS 99 is folded in early position. Period.

      Sorry for boring remarks. Won't bother you more :D
      well, if you follow the hand-history very closely, he's playing in MP1. one player is sitting out and Full Tilt is 9 handed.
    • poger8
      poger8
      Silver
      Joined: 26.06.2009 Posts: 207
      <he's playing in MP1>
      Again you're right, but the author made a good hiding attempt, by putting it before UTG2 :)
      Still even MP1 maybe not the best. Any pocket pair is basically a coinflip against any 2 non-paired overcards, that are a lot for 99, and those pesky 'fish' plays a lot of KJ,AT or so. Just yesterday I lost with 99 on BU against QJ on BB. As they say - 'Flop will usually disappoint you', that happen to me lately often even with QQ X(
    • wuusaa
      wuusaa
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.05.2007 Posts: 455
      Canada?
      Canada raises 22 from utg :D

      Sorry but preflop play is individual and not completly "right" or "false"
      different styles are possible.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      I agree; nh.

      The Ace is a good card to 2nd barrel against an opponent who is calling a cbet in more than 50% of cases - i.e. a fish. If he calls the flop with just A-high he is an idiot and you can make a note for next time.