AK fustraste me

    • Soati
      Soati
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.07.2009 Posts: 3
      Hello,

      I am rather new here, and extremely fustrated.

      I am beggining to think that some hands on the SSS chart simply do not work.

      AK, for instance, playing strickly as the chart tells me to, has lost me about 300 BB in about 10 days.

      Now, I know AK is not omgIgotyounow, but the chart does say, if I have one raise infront of me, I should go all in with AK.

      I had a funny one today. I get AK, flop is AKJ, other guy has QT.

      This is just an example, my AK loses to midpairs, pocket 22, almost anything. The only time it does win me something ( mostly ) is when everyone simply just folds.

      Now, I wanted to know, is AK really a good hand to go all in with if there is one raise infront/behind you ?



      >_<<<<<
  • 12 replies
    • RahXephon1
      RahXephon1
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2009 Posts: 972
      Yes it it fine, but surely it doesn't help when you'll lose a lot of flips in a row, but such is the SSS strategy. You have a lot of variance and can have outright terrible results in the short run.

      The only adjustement you can do with AK is maybe not to reraise another SSS player that raises from early position since you'll be behind a lot.

      P.S. And yeah since AK is a coinflip a lot of times you make lots of profits from it when people fold.
    • poger8
      poger8
      Silver
      Joined: 26.06.2009 Posts: 207
      Matematically spoken, on service there are 12 (6+6) opportunities to get AA or KK, and 16 (4Ax4K) to get AK - only 33% higher chance to get AK than toppest pair. But in real life it seems you get AK twice or more often than similar pairs. Is it my impression only?

      The advantage of AK is that if you get A or K, it's often enough to win + scary factor of first big raise/reraise, disadvantage - if don't get them on the flop, often you have only at max 6 outs - worse that even simple OESD or flush.
    • poger8
      poger8
      Silver
      Joined: 26.06.2009 Posts: 207
      P.S. In few spare minutes I calculate odds for AA/KK vs AK. If you take AK out of 52 cards, possibility to get another AA/KK pair is lower than 1 of 200. So against 8 other players, they have 8/200 = 4% possibility to catch these pairs against yours AK, or only 2% getting opp with AA, but ~50% that some other user has any pair.

      So consider it being re-raised or even called. Yesterday I got A on flop and K later only to lose all good stack to set of 3 that user caugth on the flop :evil: In other session in 3 encounters QQ vs AK - I lost 2 times QQ vs AK, and one AK vs QQ - all three. With this kind of luck downswing is inevitable :D

      So next time when you've got only blinds on AK raise, maybe it saved you from a great disappointment.
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      I once had a sequence in SSS where my AK vs pairs QQ or lower lost 13 from 16. Variance can lead to this, and all you can do is get in with the best percentage, and wait for it to swing your way.

      They are only flips though, so don't be surprised by this.
    • mishkagg
      mishkagg
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.07.2008 Posts: 1,354
      For the Qj hand - you dominate him hard preflop and you have TPTK on the flop. It's 100% ok to bet your whole 20 bb on a hand like this.

      And AK works best against lower Aces like AQ and AJ and against KQ, KJ, QJ and lower. Against pairs is a small dog so there's not much you can do if you're proflop allin vs 77. But when you're not all in and the 77 just calls your 4 bbs the flop is very likely to have overcards to the 7 so with AK you can c-bet and most probably you will scare him off. That's the power of AK IMO.

      And I know it's very frustrating when the AK gets raped few times in a row but shit happens, just shrug it off and play on.
    • andreibalint
      andreibalint
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.04.2009 Posts: 872
      Hoping to be at least a little on the topic i'll post my dilemma here... Classic KK vs AA battle. There are 169 hands (not considering suits) so you get KK only once in 169 hands. In short handed play you have 5 opponents which can have the remaining 168 hands. The probability that one of them has AA is 5/168= 2,97%. So you get KK 1/169 hands=0,00591% and get crushed in 2,97% of the time. If until now i'm right you should be dominated by AA when you have KK in 0,00591*2,97% of the cases. That means a 0,0175% probability. So you'll get crushed every (100hands*100%)/0,0175% which is once in 5714 hands. Does anybody feel like you get crushed much more often than that?
    • Cpwpoker
      Cpwpoker
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.06.2009 Posts: 706
      Originally posted by andreibalint
      Hoping to be at least a little on the topic i'll post my dilemma here... Classic KK vs AA battle. There are 169 hands (not considering suits) so you get KK only once in 169 hands. In short handed play you have 5 opponents which can have the remaining 168 hands. The probability that one of them has AA is 5/168= 2,97%. So you get KK 1/169 hands=0,00591% and get crushed in 2,97% of the time. If until now i'm right you should be dominated by AA when you have KK in 0,00591*2,97% of the cases. That means a 0,0175% probability. So you'll get crushed every (100hands*100%)/0,0175% which is once in 5714 hands. Does anybody feel like you get crushed much more often than that?
      This just prove that theory and practice is not the same :P !

      Lol u get pawned more time with strong hand and win more time with weak hand than in theory XP

      My way of playing AK with SSS.

      Other than AK most of the SSS hand are pairs. Pairs are made hand whereas AK is just high card that will give you the highest pair if you hit the board.

      I have stop to go all in with AK if some raise before or behind me.

      If i'm first to enter the pot i will raise 4 bet if some else have raise before me i will just call n limp.

      If i have raised first and don't hit the board i will raise 1/2 ~ 3/4 pot to try to make the villain fold if he call or reraise i will fold for a reraise or check at the river.

      If i limp because of a raise before me and i don't hit the fold , normally the villain will make a raise reguardless of whether he hits the board or not then i will just fold better lose some blinds than lose my entire stack.

      If i limp because of a raise before me and i hit the board and i'm first to bet i will just check. Why? Normally the original bettor will raise on the board even if he hit nothing this will give me some chips and depending on the board i will reraise making him fold or call with his worse hand or just call.

      Why not always reraise?By limping and making it to the flop the board can be in his favour for exemple if the board is a flush draw or straight draw i raise to make him fold.But if the board is ranbow draws small unconnected card i will check so that he will raise on the river also.

      uhh hope my reply is not too much confusing xD

      Anyway i don't follow SSS for AK too much variance and i'm subject to a high level of tilt during a bad beat lol
    • poger8
      poger8
      Silver
      Joined: 26.06.2009 Posts: 207
      <so you get KK only once in 169 hands>
      If you'd read any article for poker math, you'd find that possibility to get a specific pair is 1/210. It means on 9 hands table there is 9/210 ~ 4% that somebody got AA. So be warned! But at the same time when you got AA, what is the possibility of another AA? First of 2 other aces is 2/50 and second 1/49 means 2/2450 or 0.08% or 0.64% against any of other 8 players. Seems like small value, but I got into this situation yesterday. But if got KK, the possibility for other player to get AA is still 4% :(
      But be ready to even smaller possibilities, and here is where SSS shines, because in any 10 or 0.1% chance against, you supposedly lose only a short stack :)
    • andreibalint
      andreibalint
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.04.2009 Posts: 872
      poger8 if you'd read any article for poker math, you'd find that the possibility to get a specific pair is actually 220 lol :D Wikipedia says there are 169 hands so i went with it... Let's try it your way.
      1:220 you have KK, 1:220 one player has AA
      So you'll get crushed KK vs AA every 220*(220/10) hands in fullring with 10 players which is once in every 4840 hands. In SH it's once in every 220*(220/6)= 8066 hands (oups, so i calculated wrong). But still it's a little strange since i feel like i get crushed more often... :f_biggrin:
    • poger8
      poger8
      Silver
      Joined: 26.06.2009 Posts: 207
      OK, OK 220 it is. Not a big diff though. And I don't think that all previous rounds are affecting probabilities on that specific round. So on table with 9 other players EACH of them has 1/220 possibility to get AA, that means 9/220 ~ 1/25 for any of them when you finally get KK. I also lost recently KK to AA once. But more often I either get only blinds, or win before showdown, or few times lately got A on the flop, maybe depriving you of top pair, because a probability that 1 guy got an Ace is 1/5.9 that means strong probability that maybe even 2 guys having them immediately, and if he/they didn't fold it on your bet...
      And you still may lose KK to 72o :f_biggrin:
    • poger8
      poger8
      Silver
      Joined: 26.06.2009 Posts: 207
      Hey, funny or not, I got KK against AA again yesterday (lost again), and I don't play a lot, yesterday has KK only 3 times. So my last ~10KK met AA twice with effective range ~20% despite all odds :f_frown:
    • MisterHomes
      MisterHomes
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.09.2008 Posts: 128
      Originally posted by poger8
      <so you get KK only once in 169 hands>
      If you'd read any article for poker math, you'd find that possibility to get a specific pair is 1/210. It means on 9 hands table there is 9/210 ~ 4% that somebody got AA. So be warned! But at the same time when you got AA, what is the possibility of another AA? First of 2 other aces is 2/50 and second 1/49 means 2/2450 or 0.08% or 0.64% against any of other 8 players. Seems like small value, but I got into this situation yesterday. But if got KK, the possibility for other player to get AA is still 4% :(
      But be ready to even smaller possibilities, and here is where SSS shines, because in any 10 or 0.1% chance against, you supposedly lose only a short stack :)
      You cant multiply 0.08% by 8 to get 0.64%.... that's just like saying if there's a 15% chance for something to happen, and there are 8 people, then it will happen with a probability of 120% :f_confused: