[NL20-NL50] NL50SH 280bb deep vs tag

    • silent21
      silent21
      Global
      Joined: 08.08.2008 Posts: 1,556
      SB ($151)
      Hero ($136)
      CO ($53.40)
      BTN ($15.80)

      Dealt to Hero K:diamond: A:heart:

      fold, fold, SB raises to $2, Hero raises to $7, SB calls $5

      FLOP ($14) 9:club: A:spade: K:heart:

      SB checks, Hero bets $9, SB calls $9

      TURN ($32) 9:club: A:spade: K:heart: T:club:

      SB checks, Hero bets $20, SB raises to $65, Hero ????

      SB is a usual tag 18/16, fold to 3bet 65% over 300h.

      what is my decision after his raise, how would you generally play this hand. playing deep is one big !@#$
  • 5 replies
    • caltabiano
      caltabiano
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      I find it hard to believe he c/c flop on a gutshot. Although, since you're deep, he might have though: "oh well, we're deep, I might get paid off pretty handsomely if I hit."
      I think that's a silly thought by him, since you have to have at LEAST the kind of hand that you do have in order to get paid off.

      So, I think the straight is not often in his range. Since I don't believe he's bluffing you on the turn, I can only see him doing it with a set or 2 pair. Aces and kings are so unlikely in his range and I really do think he'd have c/r the flop with a set, because he wants to get your whole stack and since you're deep he's gotta build the pot on the flop. When he raises this big on the turn, he really does look like he wants to stack off on the river though. Now, is he stacking off AT for 280bb? It's kind of hard to say without some solid reads. Can he really expect you to go broke for that much on something like AQ or AJ?


      Whereas I feel like he would have c/r the flop with a set, I feel like he wouldn't try to play AT for stacks. And since the flop is so dry, he could indeed have played his set for c/c.

      But then again, why did he make it this big? He doesn't have to make it this big in order to get a river shove. I think if he had a set, he'd have made it smaller like $50, so the pot would be $130 and you'd have like $70 behind. Maybe he could be making this with something like AJ, now that he got his additional gutshot outs and hoping for you to fold.

      I think this is going to be very opponent dependant. Is he thinking about betting sizes? Or is he just randomly sliding the raising bar? Is he playing AT for 280bb? Could he have peeled QJ on the flop?

      I think I'd have a hard time folding this hand, although I rellay think there's something to be said about it. Can we call and fold to river shove? I really don't expect him to shove anything other than a set. We are getting nice odds though.

      Sorry for my long post.. I just wrote things as I went along and I might have contradicted myself in a couple of spots. Very interesting hand though. Do you have any special reads on him?


      I haven't quite come to a conclusion to be honets. I know that on the table I'd never fold this. I'd definitely call.
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      wowowow, hardcore. You think he calls GutShot on flop or is he trying to rep a set?
    • radyan111
      radyan111
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 1,151
      I know my judgement is influenced by the way the hand progressed, but maybe check behind turn is the way to go here?
      I don't feel comfortable playing deepstacked, but I know that pot control is very important and it sucks so much when he raises you there. So even if he pots the river you can safely call him unless an awful card like J:club: appears.
    • caltabiano
      caltabiano
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      Originally posted by radyan111
      I know my judgement is influenced by the way the hand progressed, but maybe check behind turn is the way to go here?
      I don't feel comfortable playing deepstacked, but I know that pot control is very important and it sucks so much when he raises you there. So even if he pots the river you can safely call him unless an awful card like J:club: appears.

      I think we'll miss out on value by not betting the turn. Mainly against 2 pair. We can definitely get 3 streets of value from AT or A9.

      Man, this hand is so tough. When he c/r, I really don't think he has 2 pair. Why would he do this with 2 pair? There's no value whatsoever.
      I question if he'll do this with something like AJ when he picks up his gutshot.

      Why the hell does he raise so big? I find it very hard to believe that he's just trying to represent something here. First of all, people hardly ever c/r bluff the turn. And then, this is a 3bet pot and a deepstack hand. So al the conditions are met to make people unconfortable bluffing. I think he would c/r AJ or AQ maximum.

      The more I think about it, the more I think we can fold =/
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think turn bet is must there, if you´re scared playing that deep then you should quit table.
      turn:
      - would he c/r there AT/A9 or some kind of semibluff.
      if your answer is yes, then imo you should b/c turn and likely call a lot of rivers
      If you think he is going to c/r turn only with 99 (And maybe QJ/TT) then I like fold more than calling.
      Qj is not that likely, so it is imo 99 or AT, but since I´m not sure if he is going to c/r AT on that board, especially when he is also scared about that money,t hen I like b/f turn more than calling him down.
      Just on dry boards I think he isn´t semibluffing or c/r enough that you can call him down