[NL2-NL10] Villain's min raise seems too good (NL50 BSS FR)

    • howard182
      howard182
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.10.2006 Posts: 416
      Ignoring his preflop call, which was almost certainly bad, the flop play is disturbingly effective against my range on this flop (even as a bluff 100% of the time it should be break even or slightly profitable I think, and of course it 's not a bluff 100% of the time) and while I think I'm usually saving money against a NL50 player, a more advanced player could make this move every time against me as long as I fold my JJ-KK every time, which I can't see a real alternative to. Changing my continuation betting range (on this flop it's currently my whole preflop raising range, except AA if I think my opponent's not observant enough to see through such an obvious slow play... which is another factor in favour of adjusting my range here) against such opponents is probably the answer but I'd like some expert advice.

      Villain in this hand might be unknown, might not be because of a bug in texas grab'em. Luckily, it doesn't really matter because I'm not looking for help with this specific hand.

      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)
      UTG+2:
      $60.71
      Hero:
      $50

      0.25/0.50 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.7 by www.pokerstrategy.cc.

      Preflop: Hero is SB with K:diamond: , K:club:
      2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.50, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, MP3 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $4.00, BB folds, UTG+2 calls $3.50, 2 folds.

      Flop: ($9.50) A:heart: , T:heart: , T:club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $7, UTG+2 raises to $14.00, Hero folds.

      Final Pot: $30.50
  • 4 replies
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      With KK on this flop a check seems fine since you may be able to extract value later from smaller PP's etc.

      As played I feel that your hand is turned into a bluff. A flop bet would make loads more sense if you had 88,KQs etc.

      My non-expert opinion.
    • Alaton
      Alaton
      Black
      Joined: 21.02.2006 Posts: 1,472
      AKo+AKs represent 1.2% of the total possible Hands.
      JJ-KK represents 1.4% of the total possible Hands.

      So in this particular Hand you will have an Ace nearly as often as you will have an Underpair.
      He invests 14$ to win 16.50$, so his bet has to work in ~46% of the cases.
      You will hold an Underpair in ~54% of the cases.

      You see that there is not really a big bluffing-Value.
      If you add hands like AQ to your range, his bluff turns -ev.

      Contibet is fine in the Hand, he has to fold any non-Ace Hand, which might bluff you if you check to him.
      Fold after raise is easy.

      Problem with extracting more money from smaller PP's simply is that you can't really call any reasonable bet from your opponent here on an Ace-high board. Betting yourself gives you more information and grants the possibility to end the hand early.
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      I am confused here.

      Contibet is fine in the Hand, he has to fold any non-Ace Hand, which might bluff you if you check to him.


      Doesn't the contibet just force villain to play his hand correctly (put no more money in the pot with the second best hand)?

      Fold after raise is easy.


      What if villain flat calls and the turn is a blank?
    • Alaton
      Alaton
      Black
      Joined: 21.02.2006 Posts: 1,472
      Originally posted by Nunki
      I am confused here.

      Contibet is fine in the Hand, he has to fold any non-Ace Hand, which might bluff you if you check to him.


      Doesn't the contibet just force villain to play his hand correctly (put no more money in the pot with the second best hand)?

      Fold after raise is easy.


      What if villain flat calls and the turn is a blank?

      The Problem with not betting is that you don't gain information if you call a bet from your opponent. With such a marginal Hand (Second Pair) it is important to find out early if your hand is good. It is ok for you to pick the pot up immediately with second pair.

      Well if villain flat calls it gets ugly and we definitely need stats from our opponent. Basically a Call could indicate a slowplayed T, an Ace or a Flushdraw (not all that likely).
      In most cases I would slow down here and often check/fold against a real bet. There are not too many possible weaker holdings he could have