[NL2-NL10] NL100 AA double stack

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,403
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $41.35
      BU:
      $41.40

      0.5/1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A:spade: , A:heart:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, 2 folds, BU calls $3.50, 2 folds.

      Flop: ($8.50) 8:club: , Q:club: , Q:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $5.00, BU calls $5.00.

      Turn: ($18.50) 7:heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $15.00, BU calls $15.00.

      River: ($48.50) T:spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $17.85 (All-In), BU calls $17.85.

      Final Pot: $84.20

      Is there any reason to slow down here?
      Thanks,
      Tim
  • 17 replies
    • goldflair03
      goldflair03
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2008 Posts: 1,957
      i'd bet the turn smaller and c/c the river
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,403
      i'd bet the turn smaller and c/c the river


      Thanks, I can see why a smaller turn bet makes sense - we want to keep villain calling - but why are we pot controlling the river?

      Tim
    • goldflair03
      goldflair03
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2008 Posts: 1,957
      we are not potcontroling.
      what does villian have called for 2 streets?
      fd's, pockets and 8x and i dont think that he will call another valuebet with these hands. i think if u bet the river u isolate ureself against the qx range that could have slowrolled u.
      but i call a river bet because he could valuebetting thin with 99,jj,kk or other weak 1pair hands and he could also bluffing fd's.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,403
      I see what you mean, but surely any hand that calls 2 streets on this board is not folding to a river bet with pot odds of 3.75:1 to call while any hand that has us beat will not check behind on the river but rather value bet us?

      However, a hand that has showdown value - such as big pps - will likely check behind on the river?
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Originally posted by Tim64
      I see what you mean, but surely any hand that calls 2 streets on this board is not folding to a river bet with pot odds of 3.75:1 to call while any hand that has us beat will not check behind on the river but rather value bet us?

      However, a hand that has showdown value - such as big pps - will likely check behind on the river?
      Try and think how he percieves your range on the river here. Put yourself in his shoes and for example think; "would I call a riverbet with JJ, TT here?"

      Might help.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,403
      Try and think how he percieves your range on the river here. Put yourself in his shoes and for example think; "would I call a riverbet with JJ, TT here?"


      Well, TT is probably a different thing, given the river card. But let's take JJ or KK as an alternative. If I am a thinking villain and I have called two streets on this board I am clearly not giving my opponent (hero) credit for having a Q (e.g. AQ), nor for 88. Thus nothing has changed for me to give up such a large pot on the river. In which case, if I were villain then, yes - I would call this river bet.

      But I think it's by no means certain that JJ or KK would bet on this river and if that's right it seems we loose value by not betting ourselves.
    • goldflair03
      goldflair03
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2008 Posts: 1,957
      Originally posted by Tim64

      But I think it's by no means certain that JJ or KK would bet on this river .
      maybe c/f then :P

      u've got 50% against his possible riverrange

      http://www.PokerStrategy.com
      Operation canceled... 38,034,348 games processed in 36 seconds.

      Board: Qd Qc Ts 8c 7h
      Dead:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 47.491 % 46.655 % 1.671 % 51.674 % TT+, 88, AQs+, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KQs, KcJc, KcTc, QTs+, AQo+, KQo, QJo
      Player 2: 52.509 % 51.674 % 1.671 % 46.655 % AhAd


      ----------------------------------------

      but just 30% against his callingrange and if he dont call jj than uve got just 15%
      http://www.PokerStrategy.com
      Operation canceled... 37,117,554 games processed in 32 seconds.

      Board: Qd Qc Ts 8c 7h
      Dead:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 69.504 % 68.286 % 2.434 % 29.279 % TT+, 88, AQs, KQs, QTs+, AQo, KQo, QJo
      Player 2: 30.496 % 29.279 % 2.434 % 68.286 % AhAd


      ----------------------------------------

      so it's close but i wouldnt call it a valuebet :f_p:

      c/c is much better ;)
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      I think you are committed here for 40bb against unknown so I just stick it in River

      Though c/c can also be an option but I just go broke here.

      - Gerv
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,403
      Thanks, Gerv, for backing me up.
      Villain had KK.

      Now here's what I wanted to ask: any time one player has AA and the other has KK, neither makes a mistake if all the money goes in preflop. But, if you have KK, you might be inclined to see a flop and then commit yourself to the pot if there are no Aces on the board. (I suppose this is ok so long as you know opponent doesn't raise marginal drawing hands).

      In the actual hand was villain's play very wrong? It seemed to me that if he sees himself comitted for 40bb to his KK pf (which he should) then he makes no big mistake by calling me down to the river if he knows my raising range. That is, if I have AA - as I did - then it's bad luck as he's not folding KK preflop anyway, and if I don't then he has all other likely SSS raising hands beat on this deck.

      Ultimately, with 2 Q on the deck it's hard to give your HU opponent credit for the other Q, so you just think about what other hands can beat you - and by the river only AA beats him so he's no worse off than if he'd pushed pre-flop whereas he's better off if i missplayed AK, AQ etc or have a lower pockets like JJ

      What do you think?
      Thanks
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      I don't want to see a Flop with KK and see if I will commit myself from there. I just 3bet/shove witH KK for 40bb

      Any other reason I do not do it is because of polarization but for 40bb, no thanks :)

      He can call you down hoping you have 8x, 99s or a draw and that you will valuetown himself, I think he doesn't raise because he is so afraid of the Qx

      He is not thinking in ranges but about his own hand. A Fish doesn't think on level2+

      You make this too complicated for yourself ;) Keep the game simple Tim

      - Gerv
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Originally posted by Gerv
      You make this too complicated for yourself ;) Keep the game simple Tim
      +1 I just keep it standard and go broke in this spot against this doublestack Especially If I don't have time to think whilst in game.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,403
      I did :D

      But it seemed like some felt I should play check/call on the river and I want to understand the reasons why.
    • goldflair03
      goldflair03
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2008 Posts: 1,957
      Originally posted by goldflair03


      but just 30% against his callingrange and if he dont call jj than uve got just 15%
      this
      15% is not enough
      and u even dont have enough samplesize to know if the big pockets are really in his range.

      it's a close spot and maybe in this case there is not a big ev-difference between c/c and a shove as we dont really know anything exactly about villians range.
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by Tim64
      I see what you mean, but surely any hand that calls 2 streets on this board is not folding to a river bet with pot odds of 3.75:1 to call while any hand that has us beat will not check behind on the river but rather value bet us?

      However, a hand that has showdown value - such as big pps - will likely check behind on the river?
      Especially when versus this weirdly-passive/fishy stacked villain who can't be relied upon to bluff or value-bet thin on the river. Furthermore, if this guy has a Q then it's probably AQ (only 4 combos).

      88/QQ/AQ (8 combos) or 99-JJ,KK (24 combos) => c/c river is a clear mistake.
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Originally posted by Nunki
      Originally posted by Tim64
      I see what you mean, but surely any hand that calls 2 streets on this board is not folding to a river bet with pot odds of 3.75:1 to call while any hand that has us beat will not check behind on the river but rather value bet us?

      However, a hand that has showdown value - such as big pps - will likely check behind on the river?
      Especially when versus this weirdly-passive/fishy stacked villain who can't be relied upon to bluff or value-bet thin on the river. Furthermore, if this guy has a Q then it's probably AQ (only 4 combos).

      88/QQ/AQ (8 combos) or 99-JJ,KK (24 combos) => c/c river is a clear mistake.
      Nice Analysis Nunki.
    • goldflair03
      goldflair03
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2008 Posts: 1,957
      yeah sry,
      i was wrong with c/c.
      nh :)
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,403
      Hooray :D

      p.s. getting it right on this hand and my temporary Platinum (double strat points on Titan this month) are literally the only things going right for me at the moment.

      I know, I'm such a moaner...
      But seriously this downswing will never end. Like with AK today (dealt it about 30 times) I'm running at minus -105BB/100hands. I'm sorry, but WTF?!!!

      It would be cheaper for me to open fold AK :(

      Even KK is losing money this weekend. See you later... I'm going off to cry.