% of identical flops

    • justkyle88
      justkyle88
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      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 7,596
      last night at one of my gigs there was 2 hands exactly after each other with the each same flop. but to make it even cooler. both flops contained the same tens. TTT. Anyone know how to work out how often that would happen?
  • 7 replies
    • Berzerger
      Berzerger
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      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 910
      5,68738923809458810789659871374x10^(-11)
      or approximately
      0,000 000 005 7%
    • justkyle88
      justkyle88
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      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 7,596
      holy shit, how did u get that number?
    • viewer88
      viewer88
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      Joined: 19.04.2008 Posts: 5,545
      I don't think it's a difficult calculation..

      so were are looking at two flops, first one is completely random

      you only have to calculate the possibility for those exact cards to fall on the second flop. You have to count the two cards you were dealt, so the odds are:

      6* (1/52) * (1/51) * (1/50) = 6/132600 = 4.52* 10^-5
    • justkyle88
      justkyle88
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      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 7,596
      oh ok, got ya, thanks.
      I'm not good at that kind of maths.
    • delete461
      delete461
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      Joined: 04.07.2008 Posts: 1,036
      I get one in 22,100

      given the three cards can be in any order:

      3/52 x 2/51 x 1/50
    • Berzerger
      Berzerger
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      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 910
      Originally posted by justkyle88
      holy shit, how did u get that number?
      I assume you meant you want to know the odds of two absolutely identical flops coming in direct sequence. Let's say that you want to know the odds of T:spade: T:heart: T:diamond: falling twice in a row. The odds of T:spade: being the first card is 1/52. There are 51 cards left, so the odds of T:heart: falling equals 1/51, and consequently T:diamond: 's odds are 1/50. So the odds of that flop are 1/(52*51*50).

      The odds of the same flop falling twice are then [1/(52*51*50)] * [1/(52*51*50)] or simplified 1/(52*51*50)^2. Worked out, this equals 1/17,582,760,000 or the number I posted earlier.

      Of course, the above calculation assumes that the first of the two flops hasn't been dealt yet. If the flop you're looking at is T:spade: T:heart: T:diamond: , the odds of the next one being identical is only 1/(52*51*50) or 0,000754%.
    • justkyle88
      justkyle88
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      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 7,596
      Thanks Berzerger.