[NL2-NL10] NL50 freeplay T8s 2pair on turn

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,837
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $10.75
      MP3:
      $14.70
      CO:
      $21.93
      BU:
      $30.23

      0.25/0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with T:spade: , 8:spade: . MP3 posts a blind of $0.50.
      4 folds, MP3 checks, CO calls $0.50, BU calls $0.50, SB folds, Hero checks.

      Flop: ($2.25) A:heart: , 8:diamond: , J:spade: (4 players)
      Hero checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, BU checks.

      Turn: ($2.25) T:heart: (4 players)
      Hero bets $2.00, MP3 calls $2.00, CO raises to $5.50, BU folds, Hero raises to $10.25 (All-In), MP3 folds, CO calls $4.75.

      River: ($24.75) 2:diamond: (1 players)


      Final Pot: $24.75

      Ok to go broke here?
      Thanks
  • 8 replies
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      nh
    • Gonzo394
      Gonzo394
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2007 Posts: 2,181
      At first glance: 2 pair -> i go broke.

      At a second look: we have bottom two pair. either CO played his single ace really strange (by not betting the flop and still trying to protect the turn) or we have 4 outs, since i think every hand that raises us here has us beat; and there are a lot of those out there.

      I guess i would have insta-called myself but the more I think about it: I think a fold is better.

      Let's have a closer look: We need 20% equity to push.

      Against possible hands, that have us beat, we have 4 Outs = 8%:

      Board: Ah Js Th 8d

      Equity Gewonnen UnentschiedenVerloren Hand
      Spieler 1: 92.361 % 92.361 % 0.000 % 7.639 % TT-JJ, 88, ATs, KQs, Q9s, JTs, 97s, ATo, KQo, Q9o, JTo, 97o
      Spieler 2: 7.639 % 7.639 % 0.000 % 92.361 % Ts8s

      What else can CO have?
      99, T9: possible, but would get good odds to just call on the turn. (->19% eq)
      QQ-KK: very unlikely, would have raised them preflop. (->21% eq.)
      A2s-A7s: A isn't possible, i doubt the other combinations would check on the flop and panic on the turn, but sometimes possible. (-> 23% eq.)
      single FD: wouldn't raise the turn i assume
      Pair+FD: KJ,QJ,98 in are pretty unlikely and would also often just call the turn (->9% eq.)

      So to have a profitable call here we must assume that CO is misplaying several (more than some) of his hands here (or simply is bluffing a lot).

      I still think playing b/f on the turn is better with the large number of plausible combinations that beat us.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Interesting analysis but I think CO is a midstack and he misplays often since he is immediately a sub-optimal player

      Bottom Two needs protection so i shove, his small raise doesn't really make sense

      I tend to see 2pair on 50NL as nuts due the lack of levelling

      - Gerv
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,837
      Well I was up against Q9o which probably says a lot about the skill level of the player I was up against... :rolleyes: (just one of those unlucky situs where the same card improves both player's hands - but not to the same degree).

      Quick qu:
      I tend to see 2pair on 50NL as nuts due the lack of levelling


      Can you explain what is 'levelling'

      edit: looking again, I see that villain did not limp but rather posted in mp3 and checked. Is it fair to conclude (from this action of posting in mp3) that villain is likely to be a suboptimal player, do you think?
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Originally posted by Tim64
      edit: looking again, I see that villain did not limp but rather posted in mp3 and checked. Is it fair to conclude (from this action of posting in mp3) that villain is likely to be a suboptimal player, do you think?
      Maybe, normally if a good player posts he does it in CO. He could just be impatient though playing lower stakes than normal or maybe even misclicked. I like to think this could potentially be an indicator he's more loose and aggressive than normal but I don't take I make sure I don't take it as a given he's bad because quite simply, he might not be.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      I don't see him slowplay the nuts postflop (like trips+)

      But using more stats will guarantee yourself to scout whether MP3 is competent or not but mostly I just assume it since the better players are buying in Full and are rarely posting on mp3 to play the hands


      - Gerv
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,837
      Still don't know what 'levelling' is :(
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by Tim64
      Still don't know what 'levelling' is :(

      In a game of poker, the levels of thinking are:

      level 0 = thinking about the cards you're holding
      level 1 = thinking about the cards your opponent is holding
      level 2 = thinking about what your opponent thinks you are holding
      level 3 = thinking about what your opponent thinks you think he his holding
      etc


      I don't think CO is slowplaying a hand that is the nuts postflop (AJ/A8/Sets etc.)

      Hope it helps