Lol good example of good hands gone wrong!

    • Gunnimar
      Gunnimar
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      Joined: 07.03.2009 Posts: 16
      Hi all, I seem to be having a bit of a downswing. Bad luck with pokerstars you might say.

      In two days i believe i´ve lost 50 dollars. Yesterday my AA got crushed three times. Actually didnt win any of them. First time 33 killed it. Then a flush killed it and then again 66 killed it.
      Thats okey... AA lose 20% of the time. That was variance of 60% just happens.

      My KK that i got twice. lost to QQ and TT.

      Then funniest hand was when i was headsup and had A9 suited and the guy raises all in and i call he has 34 offsuit. flop comes up with a A for me but turn and river come up with 3 and 4.

      And today i just lost with 99 again 22 and again 66 again 55.

      Encouragement?
  • 11 replies
    • Jackalof
      Jackalof
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      Joined: 08.06.2008 Posts: 1,462
      Don't give up :f_p:

      And what do you mean "That was variance of 60%"? If AA has a probability of losing 20% of the times, then losing 3 times in a row has a 60% probability? ?(
    • justkyle88
      justkyle88
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      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 7,596
      omg I tried to explain that the 3 20%'s don't add up to 60% the other night to one of my players.
    • Gunnimar
      Gunnimar
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      Joined: 07.03.2009 Posts: 16
      Thanks for the good encouragement!

      Anyways i just put those numbers together no exact science there.
    • Jackalof
      Jackalof
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      Joined: 08.06.2008 Posts: 1,462
      I think it's about 0.8% chance to lose with aces 3 times in a row (if you go all-in preflop).
      And, if it makes you happier, today I had an unbelievable bad beatish day too :f_biggrin:
    • Gunnimar
      Gunnimar
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      Joined: 07.03.2009 Posts: 16
      Weird thing... whats the chance for getting

      44-55-66-77-88 in a row in the same sng ?
    • Jackalof
      Jackalof
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      Joined: 08.06.2008 Posts: 1,462
      0.0045%. Yay math!
    • SalamiandCheese
      SalamiandCheese
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      Joined: 16.07.2008 Posts: 569
      For the 44,55,66,77,88 thing...

      It's 220:1 to be dealt a specific pocket pair so it's (1/221)^5 or 52.7 billion:1 for that. :f_o:
    • Gunnimar
      Gunnimar
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      Joined: 07.03.2009 Posts: 16
      Okey wow ! That happened to me yesterday!!! I have to get my hand history now to prove this !!!
    • MisterHomes
      MisterHomes
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      Joined: 12.09.2008 Posts: 128
      LMAO, ffs that's not the right probability... you can't just multiply specific hands together or you'll get something ridiculous... odds of getting dealt a pocket pair is 5.9%, odds of getting dealt 5 in a row = 1/1286008 or 0.0000715%
    • Gunnimar
      Gunnimar
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      Joined: 07.03.2009 Posts: 16
      Well then the odds of them being 44-55-66-77 and all that
    • andreibalint
      andreibalint
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      Joined: 11.04.2009 Posts: 872
      To get the statistics of something happening you multiply your chances. Getting crushed 3 times with aces happenes in 20%*20%*20% of the cases. That's like 0.8%. The other way around winning 3 times it's 80%^3 so 51,12%. That's why i like getting out of a cash game when i double my money.

      About good hands going wrong i know the feeling... I don't feel like I play good overall but i certainly play better than a lot of my opponents. But i lose and lose and lose and then lose a little more. I generally play NL SH, but i swiched to FL where... i lost. I tried to explain my sister a few things about SnG's so i kept on playing a few... And i lost lol. My goal now is to play good all these types of games so when i semi-tilt from a downswing and switch to another game i can still play overall profitably.