[NL20-NL50] NL25 67s

    • radyan111
      radyan111
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 1,151
      Party Poker $25 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 247949
      The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

      CO: $4.18
      BTN: $26.55 ---------------- 22/22/6.5af on 90hands
      SB: $27.16
      BB: $25.47
      Hero (UTG): $25.00

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with 6 :diamond: 7 :diamond:
      Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, BTN calls $1, 2 folds

      Flop: ($2.35) 9 :diamond: J :diamond: 4 :spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.60, BTN raises to $4.26, Hero calls $2.66

      Turn: ($10.87) 9 :club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $4.91, Hero calls $4.91

      River: ($20.69) 6 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $9.83, Hero folds
  • 4 replies
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      Hi,

      I'm c/f turn. This guy seems to be TAG, which means probably uses his brain when he playes. You line looks like a FD which means it's going to hard for you to stack him if you hit. You probably will have to donk the river to try to get value cause he might check behind you check to him.

      Hope it helps.
    • radyan111
      radyan111
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 1,151
      True, but he bets less than half potsize... I don't need almost any implieds here...
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      Your implied odds depends on the likelihood that you stack villain if you hit.
      Under the assumption that if you hit, you get villain's reaming affective 15.78 in x of the times we have:

      Pot = 15.78
      villain's effective remaining stack = 14.83
      Amount to call = 4.91
      Pr to stack villain if we hit = x
      Pr to hit a flush = 0.19 ~ 4:1

      [x*(30.61)+(1-x)*(15.78) ] / 4.91 > 4 <==> x > 0.27

      So we need to stack villain at least 0.27 of times in order to make the call ev+.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I´d also fold turn, since you could be drawing dead
      I doubt he raises there too many times with flushdraw and all his two pair or set hands turned to boat on the turn