[NL2-NL10] Nl50 Aj

    • RahXephon1
      RahXephon1
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2009 Posts: 972
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      MP2:
      $21.85
      MP3:
      $20.40
      CO:
      $64.05
      BU:
      $12.25
      SB:
      $50.00
      BB:
      $36.15
      UTG1:
      $44.85
      UTG2(Hero):
      $14.10
      MP1:
      $10.00


      Preflop: Hero is UTG2 with A, J.
      UTG1 raises to $2.00, Hero raises to $14.10(All-In), 8 folds, Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $2.75.

      Villain is a complete fish 57/29 after 7 hands. I think this is an easy push regardless of my early position, big stacksize and speculative hand. i pushed all in because i didn't want anyone else after me calling or raising me and to achieve as much fold equity as possible.

      Everything OK?
  • 5 replies
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Imo you can't just say "oh he's a fish" after only 7 hands with these stats (without specific reads) I fold.

      Maybe if he was a 100/100 player I'd move here.....
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Well, the problem is not only the unkown villain but also all the players to come after us, any of whom can easily have a better hand than AJ. 29% pfr is equiv raising 2 hands out of 7. This is definitely conceivable. I've been dealt AA, KK, then QQ in the first 3 hands of one session before...
    • RahXephon1
      RahXephon1
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2009 Posts: 972
      That is true, but since he's raising this hand again he's something like 62/37 on the hand he's playing now. He would need to fold the next 20 hands in a row to get to a still fishy 20/10. I don't mind playing against the odds that he really had 4 strong hand in a row, that is possible but very remote.
    • caroline29632
      caroline29632
      Black
      Joined: 16.02.2009 Posts: 5,794
      I think it's a ok to take the risk when you are in LP. But UTG, I would just fold. Don't know how to calculate the chance that someone behind you is waking up with AK, JJ+ (not sure, just multiply players with handrange? : 3% x 7 = 21% ?( ), but I think it's quite risky. And when you add the fact it's all just based on 7 hands and your stacksize, I would just wait for a better spot to play against the fish.
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey RahXephon1,

      you have very insufficient sample size and increased stack. Besides UTG is a bit early to push AJ, so for all those reasons I would muck preflop, it's way to much luck dependent imo.

      I might push here in case you have seen some showdown from villain to see his range is really wide and he's a bad player, but according to stats alone it's a fold.

      Regards,
      burek2000