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[NL2-NL10] NL100 AKo rainbow flop

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $20.00
      UTG2:
      $28.00

      0.5/1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is UTG1 with A:heart: , K:spade: . UTG2 posts a blind of $1.00.
      Hero raises to $4.00, UTG2 calls $3.00, 7 folds.

      Flop: ($9.50) J:spade: , 7:club: , 2:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $6.00, UTG2 raises to $12.00, Hero folds.

      Final Pot: $27.50

      Anyone think i should call the flop 3bet? Any reason to diverge from bet/fold?
  • 13 replies
    • RahXephon1
      RahXephon1
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2009 Posts: 972
      I go broke here against unknown fish. If he has something you still have outs.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      I'm a bit surprised at this advice. I thought the advice was: when in doubt, play according to the basics.

      I have to call $10 for a pot of 24.5$, so I need 28.99% equity. Against any poket pair or any hand that has paired this board my equity sucks way less than 28.9%.

      So basically I can only call if I believe my opponent to be bluffing and I don't see how I can make that conclusion after 13 hands.
    • RahXephon1
      RahXephon1
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2009 Posts: 972
      Well I'm not really sure that's the right thing to do, I just couldn't fold against a player like that, maybe that's a leak. On such a dry board my line would probably even be not to continuation bet, try to get to a cheap showdown, or raise if an A or K falls, but that could be a leak as well :f_biggrin:

      Let's see what the better guys have to say.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      You need to invest $10 into a pot of $31.5*0.95 meaning you need 25%

      on such a dry flop + fishy opponent, I think shoving is the best move here.

      Though I raise 5bb preflop or 4.5bb (pot+1bb) since I see a poster as a limper
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      Yikes! Are my calcs that far off? Can you explain how the pot is $31.5?
      I make it ($9.50 + 6$ + $10 as this is villain's effective stack) = $25.5

      And if so I make it 29% equity that I need. Can you confirm?

      If it is 29%, do you still shove? And if so, why?

      Thanks as always :)
    • Gonzo394
      Gonzo394
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2007 Posts: 2,181
      Effective Stack preflop is 20$, blinds are 1,50$, so entire pot should be 41,50$*0.95.

      hero has 10$ left (and villain has him covered) after the cbet, so he needs 10/39,42 = 25,4% equity.

      @Gerv: Your way of calculating it doesn't rake hero's reststack.



      btw: I like your raisesize preflop, but i wouldn't cbet more than 5$ on this dry flop. so in this spot i have an easier decision to b/f.
      as played i still would fold since i see less reason to assume that an unknown villain should (semi)bluff here with this dry flop. without bluffs i should only have ~20% or less.
    • excelgeo
      excelgeo
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,107
      go with gonzo for sure, bet less for cont bet

      at nl50 i have noticed that few people see how much you actually bet and they only see the action of betting.

      getting minraised is superstrength i think, i give villain at least tptk.

      fold it wait for a better spot.

      i dont understand the shoving mentality with overcards on a 3-bet that was a minraise.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      OMG, I will never be able to play poker profitbly if I can't work out the pot odds. What's wrong with me???

      When I do it, I get:

      Pot before the bet from opponent: $15.5
      Bet from your opponent: $10 (effectively, since this is all I have left)
      Possible profit for you: $25.5
      Bet, which I have to call: $10

      So, I have to invest 10$ to win $25.5 (NB this calc ignores rake – I want to ensure I have the basics first)

      Pot Odds = possible winnings : cost of staying in the hand

      So, : $25.5:$10, i.e. 2.55:1
      As a decimal, this is 1/3.55 = 0.282 So, if my chances of winning are greater than 0.282, I should call.

      Help me! Where am I going wrong with this?
    • Gonzo394
      Gonzo394
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2007 Posts: 2,181
      Originally posted by Tim64
      Pot before the bet from opponent: $15.5
      Bet from your opponent: $6 for calling your bet + raising you $10 (effectively, since this is all I have left)
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      Yowzers that's embarassing :D

      I think I need to go back to basics... :(
    • redindian77
      redindian77
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.09.2007 Posts: 45
      @Gonzo: Thx for that - I also used to leave out the rake on the remaining Hero stack.

      @Tim64: don't feel bad man, you understand the concept. You just made a slight oversight that's all
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      Maybe... But after another -100$ session just now I feel not so much like mutton dressed as lamb, but bronze dressed as platinum.

      Will post the awfulness in a mo...
    • Meiffert
      Meiffert
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.10.2008 Posts: 151
      I hate these spots so much...
      I mean, any time I have a set of jacks here (and go broke obviously) the villain shows with something ridiculous like T9 for a gutshot.
      And anytime I call with AK high they have sort of a pair, either a pocket or J or 7. xD
      Anyway against 1 pair hands you have about 25 % (as long as your 6 outs are clean) and you are getting pot odds where you only need 25, so I guess it can't really be bad to call and at least maybe get a read. ;)