[NL2-NL10] Nl25 Tt

  • 2 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hello Tampaloeres81

      I wouldn't risk a 24bb stack against a 3bb raise from mp2 without a decent sample.

      so I just muck preflop unless you can give me any reads of Villain.

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • RahXephon1
      RahXephon1
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2009 Posts: 972
      Do you think we don't have enough edge Gerv? Villain seems fishy enough after thos 21 hands and he's raising again. Against 14% we have 58% equity. I think in this spot I would shove for sure. I would surely prefer to have a 17bb stack in this spot but still I feel like I'm loosing value this way.

      So my arguments are:

      For push:

      Ahead of his range, even with a small sample I feel we can be pretty certain of that

      Overall fishiness of the opponent (50% vpip, stack size)

      Against push:

      Sample size is not big enough

      Given our stack size, he can easily fold the worse hands and call with the best ones.

      I also calculated what would happen if he calls us with 30% of his raising range (AQ+,TT+) EV+ 0,05$, and if he calls with 50% of his range EV + 0,42$. This calculation was made with the help of Xarry's chart since I don't have the equilator here. Since his ranges includes KJ+ hands and not all PPs which are maybe even more likely the EV could be even better.

      Off course, all this doesn't solve the problem of unreliable sample size, but if we had similar stats with a bigger size, Push should be profitable right?

      Thank you in advance for your opinion, I hope I'm not being annoying.