38k Hand Downswing! Hahahahahaha!!! Weeeeeeee!!!

    • SalamiandCheese
      SalamiandCheese
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.07.2008 Posts: 569
      I was running alright, 2.19BB/100 for 40k hands then every goddam site in the universe doomswitched me. It's a mix of FL .25/.50 and .50/1.

      Why? Why?



      If anyone's followed my posts the last several months this is why I'm always playing something different. Only the 10k hands or so have been played since I started playing horse, HU sngs, etc. at the end of May. At least I'm running well in those games. But dammit, LHE ring games have been nasty to me lately.
  • 9 replies
    • TerrorBlade
      TerrorBlade
      Black
      Joined: 16.10.2007 Posts: 1,922
      Huge swings are standard in FL but this graph suggests maybe your true winrate is less than 2BB/100. Make a video imo.
    • SalamiandCheese
      SalamiandCheese
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.07.2008 Posts: 569
      Yeah, that's the other explanation other than horrible downswing, I just suck. But it's probably a combo of the two. If I changed something and lose 1-2 BB/100 somewhere consistently then that explains it, too. Nevertheless, a 40k hand winning player has been roughing it for the next 40k hands any way u look at it. :f_mad:

      Winrates by stake:

      $.5/1: -0.77BB/100, 37349 hands.
      $.25/.50: +1.52BB/100, 40767 hands.

      And I'll throw in a BB graph for the hell of it. It doesn't look as bad in that one.

    • tomzyb
      tomzyb
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2007 Posts: 623
      Originally posted by SalamiandCheese
      If I changed something and lose 1-2 BB/100 somewhere consistently then that explains it, too. Nevertheless, a 40k hand winning player has been roughing it for the next 40k hands any way u look at it.

      Bryce Paradis says in his vids: if you don't know why you are supposed to be winning, then you are probably not winning.
    • SalamiandCheese
      SalamiandCheese
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.07.2008 Posts: 569
      And while I'm at it, might as well put up BB graphs of Ultimate Bet vs. iPoker, Stars, and Full Tilt. I'm not playing UB ever again because, well, it's proven it's rigged. :f_o: Whether it was rigged in my case at the low stakes is something debatable of course, but I'm not playin' there that's for sure. Bulljive.

      iPoker, Stars, and Tilt.



      Ultimate Bet



      I left UB in the green bankroll wise, though.
    • Jeero
      Jeero
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.04.2009 Posts: 114
      I'm going through something similar, but I haven't played as many hands. I played about 30k hands at .25/.50 and had a winrate of 1.15BB/100H, but for the next 15k hands I have been a losing player in 0.50/1. Then I had to drop back down to 0.25/0.50 and after about 10k hands my overall winrate in 0.25/0.50 is down to 0.57BB/100H. It's pretty discouraging.

      What is your plan from here on out for FL? I need to find a way to fix my game also.
    • michaelqian
      michaelqian
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 512
      I don't believe such downswing is possible if you play really good poker.

      Probably best to look into your game, analyze some hands you weren't sure about.

      What happened is you've just lost all the money you've made pretty much, surely you can't get unlucky with bad beats every single hand, there's bound to be mistakes or less than optimal decisions in there.
    • Jeero
      Jeero
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.04.2009 Posts: 114
      I definately believe that "downswings" are really just leaks in your game. For example if you play one hand incorrectly in FL you can lose 2 BB which you wouldn't have lost if you played it correctly. Well, if you make the same mistake once every 100 hands, your winrate will take a serious hit. However, I know that I personally make lots of mistakes while playing. FL is really hard IMO,... you are put into a lot of marginal situations and it takes a lot of effort to learn the most optimal plays.
    • SalamiandCheese
      SalamiandCheese
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.07.2008 Posts: 569
      UB was the place where I performed the worst for whatever reason. The play and stats for the avg. player there were different than every other site I've been on, WTSD was just under 34% for the avg. player on 6max tables comes to mind. I might as well post the stats that go with the UB graph again but I've posted them up in my blog a while ago.

      Hands: 21219
      VP$IP: 23.2
      PFR: 17.0
      W$WSF: 40.7
      WTSD 34.5 (UB avg. is under 34% remember)
      W$SD: 49.6% (usually 54-57% when I showdown 39%)
      AF: 2.4
      ATTSteal: 33.0
      Fold BB/Steal: 48.4%

      The showdown stats were completely messed up playing there and never had a W$SD over 50% except very early on in my "ultimate poker experience."

      I'll be playing a bit of 6max in addition to the HU sng's the next month at FT. Hopefully things will be better. My HU is fine, by the way. :s_biggrin:

      ** And I didn't lose money overall at UB because of bonuses. Yeah, that's crazy, and just makes me suspicious to be honest
    • tuomasta
      tuomasta
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 234
      I also did have huge downswing
      27bin in 2 weeks...



      i tried to replay my game, but only thing that i found was that villains aren't calling when i have good hand. and when i'm bluffing they have nuts..

      example
      pocket pairs with flop: 730
      flopped set: 73
      average won with flopped set : 4.8 BB

      villain aren't hitting when i'm hitting.....Nothing can do

      So remember keep good bankroll...

      my normal game looks like this...this is my last 4 days


      Sorry my english