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[NL2-NL10] NL50 AQo fd/g/shot

    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      Known players:

      0.25/0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A:spade: , Q:diamond:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $2.00, 3 folds, SB calls $1.75, BB folds.

      Flop: ($4.50) K:spade: , 8:heart: , J:heart: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $2.50, SB raises to $17.68 (All-In), Hero raises to $8.00 (All-In).

      Turn: ($30.18) K:diamond:
      River: ($30.18) 5:heart: (1 players)

      Final Pot: $30.18

      Is my play ok here? Villain's play doesn't look like an attempt to extract value with a better hand but rather an attempt to get me off mine. I think I need around 22% equity and easily have this against an underpair or flushdraw.
  • 9 replies
    • Gonzo394
      Joined: 29.12.2007 Posts: 2,181
      Hey Tim, still having problems with calculating equity? :P

      You need 26.82% equity here (28.24% considering rake).

      Before you spend your time desperately tying to find your mistake i tell you:
      You can't win villains whole stack since you don't have him covered. :]

      Still i'm quite surprised how much equity you have against a loose-agressive opponent:

      Board: Ks Jh 8h

      Equity Won Lost Tied Hand
      Player 1: 34.887 % 34.329 % 1.117 % 64.554 % AsQd
      Player 2: 65.113 % 64.554 % 1.117 % 34.329 % KK, JJ, 88, AKs, AJs, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AKo, AJo, K9o+, QTo+, JTo, T9o,AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, Kh6h, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, JhTh, Jh9h, Jh8h, Th9h, Th8h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h, 6h4h, 5h4h

      Take some hands away to get a feeling how your equity changes.

      But i wouldn't give your opponent something as weak as an underpair here. he would be braindead to make such a play here.
      As you see, his range of broadways and suited hands hit quite well anyway.

      I would cbet 1BB more bcause of the draw-heavy board.
    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      Hi Gonzo394,

      I'm trying... :(

      My equity calculation was indeed wrong but not for the reason you suggested - if I calculated it on basis I can win villain's whole stack (plus my $ already invested) for a call of only $5.50, I would need a heck of a lot less equity than 22% :D

      I went wrong by calculating the pot to be won as the entire $20.5 without reducing it by the cost of the call itself.

      I think from your calcs you are agreeing that we have the necessary equity to call the SB shove?

      As for your comment that "he would be braindead to make such a play here," his hand was not the worst hand of the equilator range you give him. It was the second worst; so pretty braindead then...
    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      I think this is a value line and enough of his range will be made up of value hands rather than draws. I B/F flop.
    • wuusaa
      Joined: 15.05.2007 Posts: 455
      marked :f_p:

      b/f or b/c
    • Nunki
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865

      Suppose villain doesn't have QQ+ or AK but plays any broadway,22-JJ,SC's , suited one-gappers most suited aces and a few suited K's not already included. Furthermore, if villain open-shoves ANY 8-x or better, any FD or OESD we have about 34% equity and our flop-call is trivial since its worth a couple of BB's. If we further assume that villain willc/r random missed hands 10% of the time then our call is worth another BB.

      Different hand-range assumptions obviously lead to very different conclusions. Knowledge of how this villain defends from BB/SB and/or cc's PF or limp/call PF helps in this spot. (It hardly helps at all to estimate any of villain's stats but might give a clue as to how wide a range we can atribute to villain).
    • burek2000
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,107
      Hey Tim64,

      I wouldn't presume more or less unknown villain is trying to bluff you off your hand, specially not on a board that perfectly hits your range. I would just bet/fold as I think you will hardly achieve 28.24% BEQ you need against his check/raising range. But if you do call, then at least make a note of his play for future reference.

    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      I always make notes :)

      As mentioned, villain had 6 :heart: 4 :heart: in this hand. So, given that this board so perfectly hits my range, there are two possibilities to explain his play:

      either villain is not a thinking player and actually believes he maybe ahead here often (i.e. thinks I may raise with nothing), or he hopes to make me fold by shoving - I think this latter move counts as what people call a 'semi bluff'?

      I had another hand a while back: my JJ vs villain's Qx and the board was something like Qxxss ( NL50 JJ 1.5stack ). Villain was unknown and shoved over my c-bet. I called this shove because like Burek seemed to agree in another post ( NL50 TT utg ), we make a mistake if we always give credit to villain's 3bets where there is only 1 overcard and we are HU.

      This hand shows that some villains choose to play their draws aggressively. So, how do we decide whether to call a shove from an unknown villain where there is 1 overcard to our PP but there are also draws which villain may have? Or rather, can it really be right that against an unknown villain we always fold our high pp to action from that villain when they may only have a draw?
      Grateful for your thoughts
      - a confused Tim64...
    • burek2000
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,107
      Hey Tim64,

      I think it's very situation dependent when you look for the best way to play your hand. The best thing to do is give your opponents a range on the flop with which they will make a certain play and then see how much equity you have against this range.

      Another thing is, villains will sometimes also check/raise you with a PP lower than yours or second pair when there's only 1 overcard to your PP, so it's not always just a draw, but also other worse hands you beat, included in villain's range. And it's also important to see what card is the overcard, for example A or K as overcard is far more dangerous than J or Q.

      At least now you know that this villain plays his draws aggressively and you can give him less credit for value pushes next time you confront him. :)
    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      The point about A and K being the most dangerous overcards makes a lot of sense and perhaps I'm not always cogniscant of this difference.

      I guess an average loose villain is much more likely to limp/call Ax or Kx, than Qx or Jx.

      Will keep this in mind - thanks again.