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[NL2-NL10] NL100 AQs in CO vs mp3 minR and BB push

    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      Known players:

      0.5/1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A:club: , Q:club:
      3 folds, MP3 raises to $2.00, Hero raises to $6.00, 2 folds, BB raises to $18.00, MP3 folds, Hero raises to $23.70 (All-In), BB raises to $20.00 (All-In).

      Flop: ($46.20) 5:club: , 2:spade: , T:club:
      Turn: ($46.20) 3:heart:
      River: ($46.20) 2:diamond: (2 players)

      Final Pot: $46.20

      A difficult decision that I and my fellow sweatbuddies struggled with. BB relative unknown, MP2 also. It's hard to know without stats how loose BB might make this 'squeeze-like' play. First instinct was to fold. Called because dead money and uncertainty of range villain does this with. Probably a mistake?
      If I calculate right, I think I need about 34% equity to push here. If BB's range is AKo+,JJ+ I'm a little short, whereas if he does this with, say, TT+,AQs+ it becomes very marginally profitable. Fold seems safest overall, but what do you think
  • 1 reply
    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      You need 34% and I do not really think BB would be shoving AQ+,TT+ here but more AK+,JJ+

      Therefore to reduce variance, folding is fine. Calling however is also applicable but has its cons (guessing part whether BB 3bets 3% or 4.7%)

      You can also take your own CO range against a minraise in account and go from there (reversal thinking)

      Best regards,