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[NL20-NL50] NL25 FR, JJ Oop

    • jenoc
      jenoc
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.04.2008 Posts: 510
      Villain is 12/9 AF=2.7 WtSD=17% foldtocbet=62% on 667 hands

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($5.10)
      BB ($25)
      UTG ($25)
      Hero ($25)
      UTG+2 ($32.54)
      CO ($51.83)
      BTN ($35.03)

      Dealt to Hero J:club: J:diamond:

      fold, Hero raises to $1, fold, CO calls $1, fold, fold, fold

      FLOP ($2.35) K:heart: 2:heart: 8:club:

      Hero bets $1.70, CO calls $1.70

      TURN ($5.75) K:heart: 2:heart: 8:club: K:diamond:

      Hero checks, CO bets $3.75, Hero folds

      A solid player with low wtsd calls cbet on K high dry- this means something strong. However- I don't think he will have some suited connectors very often but he can't always have set + he won't always trust me that K and call cbet with some PP and if I check this turn he almost always will bet. After that being said- would it be ok to bet/fold turn? Such situations leave me with- "sir, you got pwnt" feeling..
  • 2 replies
    • radyan111
      radyan111
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 1,151
      I would bet on the turn. The other option is check/call to induce a bluffbet from him, but I'm certainly not giving up my jacks at that point.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,


      62% fold to c-bet is low enough for him to be floating those kinds of common c-betting spots in position imo if he's a solid reg, so i don't mind sticking around for another street.

      Only question is whether you can get him to float again on that K turn, in which case bet/fold is likely better, or if he'll give up in spite of the fact that it's a bad card to barrel, in which case giving him a chance to stab himself would be best. Maybe looking at his fold to turn bet / turn AFq would help you to decide which is best. I think most people at nl25 aren't on a level where they can call again that turn with a float or a pocket pair no matter how bad a barrel card it is, so i'd probably end up check/calling a bet from a relatively aggressive solid reg.

      Be careful with the WTSD stat. It being low doesn't necessarily means his range is tight for floating that c-bet. More that his play is aggressive enough to not see a showdown very often, like floating to bet 100% of the turn cards.


      Hope it helps.