Is this variance normal?

    • link4o
      link4o
      Global
      Joined: 04.08.2008 Posts: 48
      So lately is been fucking shit ffs i put my money in the middle 80% of the time i have the best hand and yet i get sucked out when they haev like 3-9 outs.And the shortstacks seem to be godmode beating me everytime when i have them dominated with the 3 outers
      Tell me is this difference between the EV and actual money won line normal or am i experiencing sick variance.Its been going on for like 20k hands.
      Do I have to just grind through it ?


      p.s poker is rigged ffs :s_mad:
  • 19 replies
    • VicoII
      VicoII
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.08.2008 Posts: 60
      it's normal dude
    • Cpwpoker
      Cpwpoker
      Silver
      Joined: 04.06.2009 Posts: 747
      yup normal variance xD !

      Wath my variance this month lol -

      i just move up a limit xD



      Variance is a bitch but playing solid poker will always be +EV ^___^ in the long long term xD
    • excelgeo
      excelgeo
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,107
      if this is your lifetime graph then you are hurting because you dont follow BRM, what is this $50 loss there?
    • lessthanthreee
      lessthanthreee
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.06.2009 Posts: 16,300
      when you ask a question about variance the BI is usually an important point to include.
    • Cpwpoker
      Cpwpoker
      Silver
      Joined: 04.06.2009 Posts: 747
      Lol misunderstood :P

      Removed
    • link4o
      link4o
      Global
      Joined: 04.08.2008 Posts: 48
      Originally posted by excelgeo
      if this is your lifetime graph then you are hurting because you dont follow BRM, what is this $50 loss there?
      Well I had my first 'tilt' :) Lost 3 deep stacks with AA pf vs KK then lost with
      [nut flush on flop] vs overpair
      turn gave him set
      and river that made fullhouse
      , 20 min brake then -1 more BI from set vs set
      aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand i went nl50 HU cuz i spot this fish sitting on table with 42$ :f_biggrin: ....... I think to myself --> well if my friend is pro HU player and I know how he is table selecting for fishes and I watched him play so I can stack this fish for some ezy fast cash and come out breakeven etc.

      But i learned my lesson , the only changes i make in my normal play now are between FR and SH the same limit.Realised how stupid I acted after reading some articles in here about HU.

      What made me tilt was that i was running megahot at the start like +20 BI in 3k hands and then was breakeven for 2-3 days -->I made like 9-12k hands per day multitabling 9-12 tables.The EV line kept going up and the
      actual money won kept been break even.

      Im glad i realised that im not ready for this multitabling yet , and that i'd rather play my A game with Human reads + PT3stats on 4 tables.

      I'm also not mad at variance anymore , my friends had a long chat with me and explained to me that its not important how much money you won , its important to improve your game and to have your EV line high because in the long run it should even out and If i keep making +EV moves and stop caring about suckouts and watching cashier after each beatdown i will be very successful.

      5th edit : im playing nl5 at FTP so 1 buy in for me is 5$ and deep is = 10$
    • sm112
      sm112
      Black
      Joined: 14.10.2008 Posts: 213
      No, this is not normal, this is pretty sick. I know how you feel, I experienced the same 2 last months, over 176k hands to be precise (you can check out the graph from my blog - sm112 shortstacking NL100 . But things will change, I made twice the profit in 6 last days as I did on those 2 months.
    • excelgeo
      excelgeo
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,107
      to lose 6 buy ins when shortstacking is pretty normal variance, a little tough if it happens at the same time but it is normal. I am inclined to think that our friend also made some bad decisions when on this downswing and finally he played outside his limits which also cost him

      it's ok though, take it as characted building lesson and carry on, we have all been there =)
    • link4o
      link4o
      Global
      Joined: 04.08.2008 Posts: 48
      take it as characted building lesson and carry on, we have all been there
      yeah :)
      p.s im playing BSS at nl5 not SSS :)
    • csnmf
      csnmf
      Global
      Joined: 22.11.2006 Posts: 444
      You are roughly 32 buy ins below EV in 20k hands, it's normal to have variance obviously but it's not common to be that bad. Not many people have had a worse run than that.
    • excelgeo
      excelgeo
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,107
      no he isnt.

      he has just admitted he played nl50 deepstack..
    • csnmf
      csnmf
      Global
      Joined: 22.11.2006 Posts: 444
      He said he plays NL5 and sometimes plays deep, he said he took one shot at NL50HU when he was tilting from the sounds of it he didn't go all in so it doesn't effect his ev graph.
    • excelgeo
      excelgeo
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,107
      yeah he did how do you explain hand ~30000??

      more than $50 loss
    • sm112
      sm112
      Black
      Joined: 14.10.2008 Posts: 213
      I think the issue here is the gap between all-in EV and money won, and this drop didn't affect it. Although the EV line doesn't 100% reflect the quality of your game, it is nevertheless and indicator of how good or bad you run.
      Imo it is way more accurate when playing SSS, as you go all-in most of the time when the pot is relatively small compared to your stack.
    • AugustusCaesar
      AugustusCaesar
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.05.2008 Posts: 377
      That is very very sick imo, and that is why BRM rulez :-) You will get over it, just play your A-game sir :s_biggrin:
    • link4o
      link4o
      Global
      Joined: 04.08.2008 Posts: 48
      well im done with poker.Supposed to get a heater after being ~40 buyins below ev line AFTER 120K HANDS but then i get this in less than an HOUR, kinda like a wakeup call.:
      btw "this variance is normal" and other similar comments --->
      pls keep them to yourself unless you can post a graph in which at some point u had your EV line 3,5-4 times higher than your actual money won THX
      initial deposit - 20$
      3 weeks of playing
      BR 213$ in 108k hands EV line at 571$
      900 hands later
      http://www.handconverter.com/hands/286603
      http://www.handconverter.com/hands/277293
      http://www.handconverter.com/hands/277086
      http://www.handconverter.com/hands/277086
      http://www.handconverter.com/hands/277027
      http://www.handconverter.com/hands/276986
      http://www.handconverter.com/hands/276807
      http://www.handconverter.com/hands/275522
      there are like 4-5 more hands where i get suckout vs 5% but i cba hosting em all
      edit : i just rember the final hand that pushed me to this--->
      it was 4way allin preflop AK vs AK vs AK vs QQ[ME WITH QQ] and the flop came A8J turn 8 river 3 GLHF. before you flame me for pushing qq preflop the other 3 pushers were all stations with ~60/10 with 40wtsd over 80 hands.
      BR 98$ EV line at ~640$

      atleast I didnt tilt and donate my money to some higher limit so I guess in 15-20 min I will CASHOUT----BANK---ATM---TITTIES
      BING BANG BLAOW
      I dont believe that this will "even out" in the end hence variance has no memory of previous results.

      I no longer believe in Play your A-game and wait for profit.I know people have been breakeven for 100k hands but they have rarely been 2 or 3 times below ev line and they usualy have rakeback etc.

      I just cant take it!I am better than them , I put my money always when I have the nuts and yet I win like 30% of the time.I kept doing that and its just not working.
      This is not like 1 day tilt or something, I sometimes wish my opponents had more brain to fold flush draws when I pot/overbet them instead of forcing "LOL MICROLIMITS FLUSHDRAWS IS NUTZ GOGOOG SHOVE".Last 2 days out of 8 people who pushed with flushdraw on the flop [ONLY flush draw no oesd no overpairs] i won only 1 hand.And yes he hit his flush on turn but i hit my FH on river.
      Best part? he was a shortstack. :f_cry:

      Value bet your hands?maximize value from villains draws? oh ye? all the fish shoves on flop with any draw+any live card draws!Some examples in the hands.+EV to call?fuck ev wheres my winnings.

      p.s I've studied each hand and made calculations in equilator + consulted pro players nl50+ on advice how they would've played it on microstakes .
      "MAN YOU GOT YOUR MONEY IN GOOD,THATS ALL YOU SHOULD CARE ABOUT.YOU PUSHED WITH NUTS, YOU GOT CALLED WHEN YOU HAD THE NUTS BE HAPPY" well FUUUUUUUUU im not happy :f_frown: :f_frown: :f_frown: :s_evil:

      I also re-tested by disregarding the actual hands that villain has in each situation and I instead assigned him a realistic- hand range based on his stats and I was still more than 68%+ in equity ; i had sick FE and mass +EV in every situation.yet everytime it seems that 5% > 95%

      IM PLAYING BSS WITH 5$ - 10$ BUY IN DEPENDING IF ITS NL5 OR NL10 IM NOT A SSSer
      omg nerdrage 50 edits :s_mad:



      TLDR:
      At first i was ~20 BI below ev line but still like 40BI+overall LOLOOLO heater INC i will pwn em.
      80k hands later---> ~40 buyins below EV line but still on + and had enough roll for nl10 tries. [120k hands nl5+nl10] i get suckouted 24/7 I got steamrolled yesterday for ~110$ half my bankroll vs 2-6 outers in each hand.
      I guess to be a pro pokerplayer you have to not give a damn about variance like the one that struck me but I just cant STAND loosing to lesser players when I outplay them.
      Im cashing out my remaining winnings and fucking poker off for a while! :f_cry: :f_cry: :f_cry:
    • tcs35
      tcs35
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.01.2009 Posts: 3,583
      Originally posted by link4o

      have you even bothered to look at half these hands? you actually have small variance but you are losing more money making bad decisions. when you drop big your ev also drops. ;)
    • link4o
      link4o
      Global
      Joined: 04.08.2008 Posts: 48
      actually bothered to read my post?I played like 80k hands more after the graph you are quoting.I will post the graph when i get home to my laptop.

      As i said in the post above you
      money actually won 98$
      EV line at ~640$
    • tcs35
      tcs35
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.01.2009 Posts: 3,583
      Originally posted by link4o
      actually bothered to read my post?I played like 80k hands more after the graph you are quoting.I will post the graph when i get home to my laptop.

      As i said in the post above you
      money actually won 98$
      EV line at ~640$
      yeah i realized after and couldn't be bothered to edit my post lol, sorry