what's better: flush draw or set?

    • wickdclown
      wickdclown
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.01.2008 Posts: 97
      Once again i just lost a set to a river flush. I'm relatively new to poker, and i never did the math, but what is better? As I understand theoretically flush draw completes 1 time out of three, is that correct?

      Now couple of examples:
      1.) You play 6handed NL10 ring game. You are UTG and you get pocket jacks. You make a standard raise, button calls. flop is 7J3 (two cards suited). You make standard contibet, villain re-raises, you - ?. Both of you have full stacks. Villain is NL10 regular fishy player.

      2.) You play 6handed NL10 ring game. You are button and you get 67s. UTG makes standard raise, you call. flop is 7J3 (two cards suited taht makes your flush draw). Villain makes standard contibet, you - ?. Both of you have full stacks. Villain is NL10 regular fishy player.
  • 22 replies
    • Cpwpoker
      Cpwpoker
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.06.2009 Posts: 706
      Set is better on flop with a 7:1 outs.

      But on river and turn flush is better with 2:1 from flop to river.

      So the best thing to do when you have a set on board is giving your opponents bad pots odds.

      but even if you do so many time they will call all-in with flushdraw and you will loose 1 time/3.

      1st examples - All-in give him pot odds perhaps he will fold and the re-raise was only for him to get the control of the pot.If he is a fishy player you will lose 1/3 time so 2/3 time you will stack him so i think all in is good or you can just call until the river but when u will reach the river he will probably fold and you won't stack him.

      2nd example - If his contibet is weak or you are feeling weakness from his bet reraise he will probably fold.Else just call and try to make it to the river as cheap possible if he is a fishy player he will go broke on the river even if you have the flush against his high pair.

      Just my humble fishy oppinion xD
    • FWKanobi
      FWKanobi
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.02.2009 Posts: 740
      Originally posted by wickdclown
      Once again i just lost a set to a river flush. I'm relatively new to poker, and i never did the math, but what is better? As I understand theoretically flush draw completes 1 time out of three, is that correct?

      Now couple of examples:
      1.) You play 6handed NL10 ring game. You are UTG and you get pocket jacks. You make a standard raise, button calls. flop is 7J3 (two cards suited). You make standard contibet, villain re-raises, you - ?. Both of you have full stacks. Villain is NL10 regular fishy player.

      2.) You play 6handed NL10 ring game. You are button and you get 67s. UTG makes standard raise, you call. flop is 7J3 (two cards suited taht makes your flush draw). Villain makes standard contibet, you - ?. Both of you have full stacks. Villain is NL10 regular fishy player.
      if you are new to poker... how come you are platinum ???
    • jonnyjm
      jonnyjm
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 447
      A floped set with beat a flush drew 2 of 3 times asuming they dont have a pair already...then the odds change, only very margionally though.
    • wickdclown
      wickdclown
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.01.2008 Posts: 97
      Originally posted by FWKanobi
      if you are new to poker... how come you are platinum ???
      relatively is the keyword. I am grinding NL cash tables for the third month, used to play SNG's for a few months before that. That's nothing compared to experience of someone who plays for years ;)

      So I guess I should just keep pushing all-in in situations where i have set on the wet flop, and in the long run profit will come..
    • AugustusCaesar
      AugustusCaesar
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.05.2008 Posts: 377
      Hi there :-)

      Originally posted by wickdclown
      1.) You play 6handed NL10 ring game. You are UTG and you get pocket jacks. You make a standard raise, button calls. flop is 7J3 (two cards suited). You make standard contibet, villain re-raises, you - ?. Both of you have full stacks. Villain is NL10 regular fishy player.
      Obviously you have the NUTS in that spot so in that spot you NEVER fold .. Only a question if you want to raise back or just call .. Personally I like pushing and saying Ship iiiiiit :s_biggrin:

      The best chance he can have is with
      :heart: 4 :heart: 5, :heart: 5 :heart: 6, :heart: 8 :heart: 9, :heart: 10 :heart: 9, ---> you have 66% to win (2 out of 3)
      If he has any two hearts you have 72,6% to win
      If he has anything este he is pretty much crushed very badly

      [size=12][quote]2.) You play 6handed NL10 ring game. You are button and you get 67s. UTG makes standard raise, you call. flop is 7J3 (two cards suited taht makes your flush draw). Villain makes standard contibet, you - ?. Both of you have full stacks. Villain is NL10 regular fishy player.[/size]
      [/quote]
      Lets take like 10% UTG raising range (88+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+, KQo)
      - you have 64,459% to win -- So for me it is never a fold (what to do is a question of how your opponent is playing)
    • RaWRpewpew
      RaWRpewpew
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.08.2009 Posts: 83
      You also have a 4:1 chance to improve to FH or better... SHEEEEEEEP ITTTTTT
    • alejandrosh
      alejandrosh
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      Joined: 02.07.2008 Posts: 4,346
      if you don't know that set > FD donwload equilator as soon as possible
    • Ka0s
      Ka0s
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.11.2008 Posts: 722
      what the hell

      you can't be platinum and don't know sets are worthless.
    • Cpwpoker
      Cpwpoker
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.06.2009 Posts: 706
      Originally posted by Ka0s
      what the hell

      you can't be platinum and don't know sets are worthless.
      Sets are worthles :s_confused:
    • Ka0s
      Ka0s
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.11.2008 Posts: 722
      yes! quads is what you're looking for
    • shortfuse
      shortfuse
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.07.2009 Posts: 450
      what the actual f!

      obvs allin the set
    • jonnyjm
      jonnyjm
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      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 447
      Originally posted by Ka0s
      yes! quads is what you're looking for
      just big LOL.....
    • jonnyjm
      jonnyjm
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 447
      Originally posted by Ka0s
      what the hell

      you can't be platinum and don't know sets are worthless.
      If you say so.....Sets are not worthless.

      Could you explain to me then why there my biggest winning hand? I win more with sets than i do with straights + flushes added together...Least thats what my PT3 says....but i guess that must be wrong..... :f_cool: :f_mad:
    • Ka0s
      Ka0s
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.11.2008 Posts: 722
      wow I asked some high stakes professional and it turns out you guys are right!
      And I was throwing my sets away, exept top set of course.
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      Originally posted by jonnyjm
      Could you explain to me then why there my biggest winning hand? I win more with sets than i do with straights + flushes added together...Least thats what my PT3 says....but i guess that must be wrong..... :f_cool: :f_mad:
      Variance.
    • NejTilSvampe
      NejTilSvampe
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.03.2009 Posts: 15
      can't believe this.. This is the most obvious thing in the world.
      you have about 40% chance to hit your flush, that means 60% of the time your set is good. Even if your opponent hits his flush, you only need to pair the board to beat him. That's usually 10 outs depending, and that's 20% to suckout. If you have a flush draw on top of that on the turn, you can add 8 outs on top of that. that's 18 outs which is 36% to suckout (asuming you have a higher flushdraw than your opponents made flush). So if you get your money in on the flop, you're in good shape with a set against a flushdraw. It's retarded to think otherwise.
    • Ka0s
      Ka0s
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      Joined: 05.11.2008 Posts: 722
      Originally posted by NightFrostaSS
      Variance.
      Gold :f_biggrin:
    • jonnyjm
      jonnyjm
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 447
      Originally posted by NejTilSvampe
      can't believe this.. This is the most obvious thing in the world.
      you have about 40% chance to hit your flush, that means 60% of the time your set is good. Even if your opponent hits his flush, you only need to pair the board to beat him. That's usually 10 outs depending, and that's 20% to suckout. If you have a flush draw on top of that on the turn, you can add 8 outs on top of that. that's 18 outs which is 36% to suckout (asuming you have a higher flushdraw than your opponents made flush). So if you get your money in on the flop, you're in good shape with a set against a flushdraw. It's retarded to think otherwise.
      +1
    • jonnyjm
      jonnyjm
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 447
      Originally posted by NightFrostaSS
      Originally posted by jonnyjm
      Could you explain to me then why there my biggest winning hand? I win more with sets than i do with straights + flushes added together...Least thats what my PT3 says....but i guess that must be wrong..... :f_cool: :f_mad:
      Variance.
      I disagree, my sarmple size is plentty big enough for varriance not to be the deciding factor.

      I stack plentty more people with sets than straights and flushes.
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