Result stats (NL, BSS)

    • howard182
      howard182
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.10.2006 Posts: 416
      A couple of questions about pokertracker stats for no limit BSS players:

      1. I've been wondering lately if I'm somehow playing a high variance game, perhaps flipping to almost LAG play on occasion. According to poker tracker (sessions, more detail), my s.d. in bb/100 for my current limit is 37.4, is this abnormally large?

      2. In April I had a W$SD of 54.34% with a WTSD of 25.95% and W$WSF of 38.20% with 18/9 preflop (and ran at 13 bb/100). In May so far I have a W$SD of 39.66%, WTSD 22.05% and W$WSF 33.46% with 14/8 preflop (and have run at -6 bb/100). These are quite different but I don't think I'm playing differently, mainly the W$SD bothers me, am I just seeing bad luck in statistical terms?
  • 8 replies
    • Sleyde
      Sleyde
      Black
      Joined: 15.01.2005 Posts: 17,714
      what do you mean by s.d. ?

      It could be that you are just facing a downswing. but 18/9 preflop stats seem fine to me. there has had to be a change in your play if you are playing 14/8 now. try to play 18/9 again and go on playing.
    • howard182
      howard182
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.10.2006 Posts: 416
      Oh, I meant standard deviation. Seemed obvious enough to me in context that I didn't think of spelling it out.

      The preflop stats worried me least of all, but maybe I'm wrong. I can't see anything to account for the change in hand distribution. I have been folding in steal situations more often but I doubt that makes a full 4% vpip.

      Hmm, actually I think I've found part of it now. I seem to have played less suited and off-suit connectors (no change in suited aces) in unraised pots. Still not close to accounting for 4% though.
    • howard182
      howard182
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.10.2006 Posts: 416
      I haven't found the root of my preflop stats change, but may's going much better now so I'm not as concerned. What I did try yesterday though was taking the same optimistic view of even fairly weak implied odds hands that is shown throughout NLHTAP and loosen up from all positions, resulting in a 27 vpip over about 600 hands. This seems to be working very well with a change I made to my game last month, which was to make more use of value all-ins. (I find myself in more situations where the play is appropriate and I probably get less credit.)

      Am I on a good path here or should I be thinking of tightening up again even in the fairly passive games I tried this in?

      (Oh, and I really should've mentioned from the start but better late then never... this is FR.)
    • Stefan1000
      Stefan1000
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.01.2006 Posts: 1,649
      Perhaps Sleyde can help? :D
    • Sleyde
      Sleyde
      Black
      Joined: 15.01.2005 Posts: 17,714
      yes, well. what limit do you play?

      I guess it aint nl100 or higher hm?

      27 VPIP FR ist too loose. In general you should be more concerned about your postflop play on the low limits. You can still adjust your preflop play at any time and it WILL adjust as you move on.

      I am not an FR expert but I think that 18/11 or sth like that is fine. But you can also be a 15/10 winning player.

      What is more, you should not try to change your preflop play from one moment to another. That just doesnt work. For example, if you watch a NL1k video somebody 3-betting a raise before him with A4o you cant just apply that to your limit even though the 3-bet was actually correct.
      Your preflop play will automatically adjust (and that means loosen up) if you move up the limits. Say you play NL10 FR and lets say you hold A2o on the button first in. I dont know if you actually raise it - I wouldnt at a nl 10 table. You ll just get called too often by the blinds. Now, if you move up the limits you will see that the blinds are getting tighter and tighter. You start raising with A6o for example and at one point you raise any ace just cause the blinds are so tight that they will fold often enough to make your steal profitable. that aint given on the low limits.

      If your winrate is fine, dont worry about your preflop play! As I already said try to eliminate your postflop leaks cause these are points where you lose the actual money.
    • Puschkin81
      Puschkin81
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2006 Posts: 4,786
      How many hands have you played in April and in May? Maybe the sample size is not big enough to state wether there is a significant change in your play or not.
      For the rest I agree with sleyde!
    • howard182
      howard182
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.10.2006 Posts: 416
      I'm not sure how many hands I'd played when I posted this, it was much earlier in the month. In April I didn't play much (but played very successfully!) with ~5.5k hands, I've now got ~10.5k for May and this is rapidly rising because I'm 6-9 tabling (mainly) short stacks at NL200 to help me cope with the psychological side of playing NL100 (it's that damn extra digit, makes everything look so much larger). (Playing more tables desensitises me to the figures involved anyway so it seems like a good idea.) 3-4k probably isn't too far off, I played a lot (for me) at the beginning of this month too. Because I've been mixing in short stack play, my stats in general are all over the place (I short stacked NL100 a bit before moving up too.)

      For the last week excluding this evening I got a very good reminder of the short term variance in poker by losing the majority of my all ins as a short stack, mostly 60-90% favourites, some coin flips and very few where I was behind. This kind of thing probably explains my poor W$SD at the beginning of the month. (My W$SD for may is much more normal now at 49%, despite containing the sample from the beginning of the month and the appalling last week.)

      re. "I guess it aint nl100 or higher" (sleyde), it was NL50 at the time of posting, NL100 shortly after. I looked more closely at the preflop stats precisely because you highlighted that change, I wasn't too worried until you did. Postflop play is always my primary concern as it's the area where... yes, I think literally everyone could benefit from improvement in.

      I'd still like some reports of standard deviation in win rate from poker tracker for NL players though :)
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      When looking at VP$IP/PFR stats it is important to realize that such numbers do not necessarily contain any useful information in determining how well we may play. It is critical that a distinction be made between cause and effect.

      There is an astronomically large number of ways that any given set of VP$IP/PFR stats could be achieved. The vast majority of these would be massive losers however. It is a trivial task to cause "Ideal" VP$IP/PFR stats.

      However, if you play well then your stats will automatically distill into something that looks reasonable. These stats are the effect of good play and are not trivially achieved.

      To consciously change how you play on the basis of pre-conceived notions about VP$IP/PFR stats is simply putting the cart before the horse. Being able to competently form a criticism of your own play is the key. Let the stats look after themselves.

      I would also warn about reading too much into your estimate of your S.D. As you probably know, your S.D. is useful in establishing how close your true win-rate likely is compared to the estimated win-rate as supplied by PT. False assumptions are the mother of many a f88k-up.