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[NL2-NL10] NL2 - JJ Deepstack

    • Alverine
      Joined: 31.01.2009 Posts: 1,938
      $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
      10 players
      Converted at

      UTG MUGF1SH ($10.34)
      UTG+1 st0rmtr00per ($1.10)
      UTG+2 murrek ($1.06)
      MP1 rhodesyboy ($3.69)
      MP2 bigfox16 ($6.95)
      MP3 Hero ($4.00)
      CO Fish_n_chips ($2.02)
      BTN gatochino24 ($1.38)
      SB mx5dane ($5.73)
      BB anyfink ($7.57)

      Pre-flop: ($0.03, 10 players) Hero is MP3 J:heart: J:spade:
      MUGF1SH calls $0.02, 2 folds, rhodesyboy calls $0.02, bigfox16 calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.14, 4 folds, MUGF1SH folds, rhodesyboy calls $0.12, bigfox16 calls $0.12

      Flop: K:spade: K:diamond: 4:club: ($0.47, 3 players)
      rhodesyboy checks, bigfox16 checks, Hero bets $0.30, rhodesyboy folds, bigfox16 calls $0.30

      Turn: 3:club: ($1.07, 2 players)
      bigfox16 checks, Hero checks

      River: 2:heart: ($1.07, 2 players)
      bigfox16 bets $3, Hero goes all-in $3.56, bigfox16 calls $0.56

      VPIP / PFR / WTSD/AF/Hands

      So, i have plenty doubts here. PF ok, flop i could check but i think a value bet is better here. After all, the chances os someone is holding a K is very low 3 handed, right?

      Check turn to control the pot, fine?

      River, wtf can i do? Is my hand worth the value to put the whole stack here? I dont think so. But what range could he make this huge donkbet??
  • 4 replies
    • SheepMoose
      Joined: 15.01.2009 Posts: 854
      I think river is a clear fold. You have to call $3 to win $4.07 so you need to be right 73% of the time here to make a call profitable. And overall I just don't think it is.
      Villian isn't going to be shoving anything worse than JJ.
    • TheBrood
      Joined: 17.07.2008 Posts: 4,383
      I think hero needs to be right 43% to make the call profitable and since villain is passive its a clear fold(you dont beat his "shove" hands).

      You only have a pair, and its not even top pair.
    • pokerafterdark
      Joined: 02.09.2008 Posts: 187
      FOLD RIVER WHY WOULD HE OVER SHOVE BLUFF ? unless you seen it done b4
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      Shortest way to say it is probably that he can't have any busted draw in that spot. The flop is so dry he'll likely only call with pocket pairs, Kx, maybe A-high no matter how passive he is, most hands don't have ANYTHING to cling on to.

      That means when you get to the river the only way you're ahead is if he's suddenly shoving an underpair or A-high for no reason, which you shouldn't usually assume until you've seen him make what are in his mind "valuebets" and in yours "wrongly turning showdown value hands into bluffs".

      Agree with TheBrood on the 43% number, tho it's not so important in our decision making there. Either you've seen him do nonsensical stuff before, or it's a clear fold.

      Hope it helps.