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[NL2-NL10] nl 4 fr KK

    • theguy
      Joined: 16.07.2009 Posts: 215
      Known players:

      0.02/0.04 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K:spade: , K:heart:
      4 folds, Hero raises to $0.16, 4 folds, BB calls $0.12.

      Flop: ($0.34) 6:diamond: , 8:club: , 4:heart: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.30, BB calls $0.30.

      Turn: ($0.94) 4:diamond: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.88, BB raises to $3.58, Hero folds.

      Final Pot: $5.40

      was this a good play and was that fold the right decision ?
  • 2 replies
    • michaelqian
      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 512
      I think folding was correct.

      He looks like a real nit from his stats, I think it's safe to assume from his shove that you are beat.

      My guess is 88 or 66.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      That's really tough, against a 4/2 or something i could see myself getting away easily, but 9/2 really looks like he's calling way more than he's reraising no matter how tight he is, so i think his range might have worse overpairs that he was slowplaying and he just doesn't want to check to you on the river or have to donk out after c/calling twice or something like that.

      The 4 on the turn makes it even less likely that he has one of the few sets out there. Mathematically, assuming he just shoved there which is almost the same thing since he's never folding, we're calling like $3.6 more into pot of $2.7 + $3.6 raise from him, that makes for around 35% pot odds.

      Board: 8c6d4h 4d

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 66,986 % 66,986 % 0,000 % 33,014 % AA, JJ, 88, 66, 44
      Player 2: 33,014 % 33,014 % 0,000 % 66,986 % KK

      So even if he only has JJ as a hand we beat and can have all the hands that beat us, we're still getting about the price we need to call it off. And i think at nl4 you'll see a lot more overpairs you beat then just JJ, so i'd shove expecting to see him overplay stuff like JJ often enough.

      Hope it helps.