Calling AI with KK+ at DoNs on early levels ?!?!

    • Skeat
      Skeat
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.08.2009 Posts: 493
      Me and a friend are debating about those players at DoN's, that when you make a raise 3x BB they go all in, even though 10 players are at the table, 10/20 blinds (first level). (Hate those players :f_mad: )

      I think it is not profitable to call here with KK+
      He think it is in the long run, because doubling up brings you easier ITM.

      Now I can't agree to that. If you call his all in with KK+ 1k times, you got to lose money in the long run. Even in the worst case (72o) you will already lose around 12% of the time, without having any shot at getting ITM. And if you win, double up, there are still 9 players, and with blind levels reaching 200/400 or even 300/600 before a DoN ends, your chances arent that high to get ITM.

      Here is a SS with ICM results:



      Although I cant agree with it :s_cool:
      DoNs aren't like normal SnGs.

      What are your opinions? :s_confused:
  • 7 replies
    • fakedurrr
      fakedurrr
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2008 Posts: 725
      hey, it all depends on the range of the opponent, if his range is lets say KK+ and AK u should definetly fold but if he is able to do this with higher range I would call that , surely , ur chips would jsut get 1/2 more equity but u are winning 80 percent of the time + u can lose with KK in higher blidns anyway when u are shorter on chips etc etc, I would just take this risk against a bg range .... even though in some games it may be bad idea
      but usually go for it
    • SuperSeanE
      SuperSeanE
      Global
      Joined: 11.09.2009 Posts: 48
      Hi Skeat
      Yeah I know what your saying about the level of risk involved with calling an all in with KK in the early stages. I personally would fold kk to an all in raise in the first two leves if after the raise I still have around about the starting stack. This is because roughly you have two types of players who willmove all in here:

      1) single tabling donks who have no strategical idea- it is generally bad to get it all in with kk aginst these players as they usaully flip over a2-ak here so often that it is simply not worth the risk.

      2) regulars- super tight in early levels- here they will either have aa kk qq and possibly jj or ak depending upon how tight they are.


      For me both of this are not looking like good calls in a DON because doubling up is no gaurantee of a cash. For Me the only hand I would call an all in with in a don in early stage is AA.

      In a $10 SNG, your starting equity is $10 and should you double up, to 3000, it becomes $15.55.

      Player 1
      3000
      $15.55

      Player 2
      1500
      $10.55

      Player 3
      1500
      $10.55

      Player 4
      1500
      $10.55

      Player 5
      1500
      $10.55

      Player 6
      1500
      $10.55

      Player 7
      1500
      $10.55

      Player 8
      1500
      $10.55

      Player 9
      1500
      $10.55

      What this means to you is that, should you end up all-in on hand one, the chips that you risk are worth $10, and the chips that you stand to gain are worth $5.55. $10/$15.55 = 64.5%, so you'll need to win an early all-in confrontation approximately 2/3 of the time just to break even! Try not to get committed in any pot that you don't expect to win at least 2/3 of the time. Just to give you an idea of how tight that means you need to be, check out this fight between KK and {JJ+, AK}:

      Hand
      Pot equity
      KK
      62.6%

      THEREFORE KK= PASS

      Any disagreement would be widely appreciated as I love to be proved wrong due to it improving my game
    • AugustusCaesar
      AugustusCaesar
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.05.2008 Posts: 377
      Originally posted by SuperSeanE
      Hi Skeat
      Yeah I know what your saying about the level of risk involved with calling an all in with KK in the early stages. I personally would fold kk to an all in raise in the first two leves if after the raise I still have around about the starting stack. This is because roughly you have two types of players who willmove all in here:

      1) single tabling donks who have no strategical idea- it is generally bad to get it all in with kk aginst these players as they usaully flip over a2-ak here so often that it is simply not worth the risk.

      2) regulars- super tight in early levels- here they will either have aa kk qq and possibly jj or ak depending upon how tight they are.
      Nice analysis sir :-)

      I have just a few ideas to be considered :

      1) It really depends very much on the limit you play (which strongly correlates with the range of the all-in raising guy) .. On 5$ DoN on Stars I am never folding KK as you can easily see guys shoving with Ax, KQ, KJ, sometimes even QJ and what is even more important, these guys are in love with pairs .. Take a range of Ax , KJ+, 55+ could be realistic and so I do not fold KK there .. I have not play any higher DoNs, so that is all I can say :f_grin:

      2) I really think that looking at a stack size from only the equity point of view is not enough .. With a doubled stack you have sort of "psychological advantage" - people tend to shove less into the big stacks and more to the shorter ones + You can easily abuse the bubble while everyone else is looking to survive .. One more thing -> On 5$ it is usually very enough to double up to be in the money like always
    • SuperSeanE
      SuperSeanE
      Global
      Joined: 11.09.2009 Posts: 48
      Hi
      Thanks for the further analysis. I am a regular at $10 and $20 DON and I feel that your first point is rarely the case at these levels. Ocassionally someone will come along and play qj or 44 this way but it is rare. Maybe at the $5 DON if players have these weak ranges then calling all ins with even qq or jj would possibly become acceptable.

      As to your second point i fel that it is the opposite at $10 and $20 DONS. I find that all the regulars and decent players tend to tr and steal my bb when i have double the starting stack. This is because they realise that I am just not going to call then with aq 99 etc because I dont need to. I am not saying that I dont like having a double stack it is just that it is not as straight forward as to say that people are affraid to bluff me.

      For my a large portion of mypositive ROI is perhaps due to my technique of pushing from cutoff or button or sb with a massive range against players that I feel will not call unless they have aa kk i the late stages due to their healthy stack sizes. I do this through the use of a HUD. A use the HUD to colour code players and red= move on their bb if they are comfortable in chips.
    • Skeat
      Skeat
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.08.2009 Posts: 493
      Thanks for the replies guys.
      I guess I will call an AI with KK+ because I'm playing 1$ DoNs and at these stakes most players that go AI at the first 2 lvls after a raise I did with 60~90 chips is just to steal my money.
    • sk345di
      sk345di
      Global
      Joined: 07.05.2009 Posts: 225
      At the 1$ buy ins a had the same dilemma as you Skeat. Whether to call or not. But after a few calls, in which i saw the opponent with hands like 45o or 78s it is never a fold for me. I don't know why but it seemed like i good idea to them to re raise me all in with those hands. My theory is that they thought that unless i have AA i can't call them because of the math that SuperSeanE posted. But guess what i can call and i will not only with KK but also QQ as well. Of course you will run into AA sometimes but it is still way to much profitable to call here then to fold. Even at the 10$ buyins i see many players overplay their AK early on so i do not fold KK here as well. QQ is a bit tougher and depends whether i am against unknown or regular.

      P.S
      Skeat at the early stages if you are raising raise to 4x BB
    • thomster87
      thomster87
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 6,151
      Folding KK in this situation is a huge leak. Let me know your screenname on stars, so that i know against whom i can make a profitable repush with any2 in this early stage.