really doubting my skills

    • shortfuse
      shortfuse
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.07.2009 Posts: 450


      it seems i lose my stacks to better sets or run into monsters.

      on the contrary i struggle to get my good hands played.

      to be fair few of these are from sukouts because since i moved up to NL25 people are just much tighter and suckouts are much rarer.

      check my blog for some examples of hands im losing.

      what can i do? i really think i should move back down to NL10 where its much looser and consequently i can get my AA played and bets called etc

      my roll is currently at 600+ from the orginal 50 and i've cahsed out 350 already ie. i've made 1k+ and and been playing about 2 months now.

      i'd like to believe my losing streak does not conincide with moving up to NL25 because evidence suggests its just monsters i lose to but i don't know. i'm confused to say the least!
  • 12 replies
    • shortfuse
      shortfuse
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.07.2009 Posts: 450
      heres an idea of how i run:

      15.5k hands NL5 15 bb/100

      13k hands NL10 22 bb/100

      recently:

      12k hands NL25 2.5 bb/100



      BUT NOTE: perhaps 3k of hands from NL10 and NL25 are SSS.

      AM I REALLY THIS SHIT AT NL25?

      i thought this would blow over but it seems like perhaps this level is too tight for me to exploit, most of the table are regulars and there are few fish. whereas its the reverse on NL10 and below. but this may because i only play on 50bb min tables so they are all regulars.
    • lennonac
      lennonac
      Global
      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 1,421
      15 bb/100 is not sustainable
      22 bb/100 is not sustainable

      2.5bb/100 is a good win rate....Whats your gripe here?
      many pro's are very happy with 2.5 why arnt you?
    • Federx
      Federx
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.10.2008 Posts: 7
      wrong forum dude :P
    • TheBrood
      TheBrood
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.07.2008 Posts: 4,383
      Originally posted by shortfuse
      heres an idea of how i run:

      15.5k hands NL5 15 bb/100

      13k hands NL10 22 bb/100

      recently:

      12k hands NL25 2.5 bb/100



      BUT NOTE: perhaps 3k of hands from NL10 and NL25 are SSS.

      AM I REALLY THIS SHIT AT NL25?

      i thought this would blow over but it seems like perhaps this level is too tight for me to exploit, most of the table are regulars and there are few fish. whereas its the reverse on NL10 and below. but this may because i only play on 50bb min tables so they are all regulars.
      Long story short, the players are better on NL25.
      13K hands prob isnt a big enough sample either.
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      I'm pretty sure that you was just running hot at the beginning.

      Don't get me wrong, it doesn't meant that you suck or not, it's just variance finally saying hello to you.
    • shortfuse
      shortfuse
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.07.2009 Posts: 450
      Originally posted by NightFrostaSS
      I'm pretty sure that you was just running hot at the beginning.

      Don't get me wrong, it doesn't meant that you suck or not, it's just variance finally saying hello to you.

      by running hot do you mean suckouts? because only on rare occasions do i push allin with the worst of it.

      however if you mean i was hitting better sets and better overpairs and now the roles are reversed then perhaps i would agree.

      i really cba to play i think i'll withdraw and rest for some time before depositing and using the first deposit bonus as i have cleared all bonuses that i have now.

      ps hand 14k is not running hot!
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255

      by running hot do you mean suckouts? because only on rare occasions do i push allin with the worst of it.
      Naaaaaah, not necessarily.

      however if you mean i was hitting better sets and better overpairs and now the roles are reversed then perhaps i would agree.
      Yeah, something more like this. There are many ways to run hot some are more obvious, some not, maybe your opponents didn't complete their draws as often as they should (if it wasn't all in you can't be sure), maybe you didn't get sucked out enough (everytime you win a pot where opponent wasn't drawing dead you run above EV), maybe you was lucky enough to get money in against their bottom stacking off range (for example villain stacks off preflop w QQ+ you hold KK,you both get it in preflop he had QQ, you hold up, now you got lucky twice first time by getting in vs bottom of his range, and second time by holding up since villain wasnt drawing dead.

      Meh i've just read what i wrote and i got to say i'm bad at explaining things but i guess you'll get what i was trying to say. :D

      i really cba to play i think i'll withdraw and rest for some time before depositing and using the first deposit bonus as i have cleared all bonuses that i have now.
      This is rly unnecessary, instead of that you should continue playing, analyze your game, post hands bla bla etc and obv don't give a fuck about the results.

      ps hand 14k is not running hot!
      Didn't get it but whatever, 14k hands means nothing, last month i was down over ~40k hands sample, so if it's impossible to run hot over 14k hands that should mean it's impossible to run bad over 40k hands which should lead to conclusion that i'm a losing player while in reality there are many winning players who got such long losing periods and tbh it's completely normal.
    • gavinonymous
      gavinonymous
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,146
      hi shortfuse.

      Have you tried the variance calculator http://www.pokervariancesimulator.fr/

      It says I could have a month with zero profit, or up to 8k ATM... after a year though I'm almost assured some decent win.. Don't give up - post hands, watch your opponents more closely and see what they are doing!

      One thing that is huge for me is table selection. At NL25 there are many more better players and avoiding them is one way to keep winning.
    • shortfuse
      shortfuse
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.07.2009 Posts: 450
      @nightfrost

      i think i know what you mean and that i should ride through this storm.

      trouble is that i'm not enjoying poker atm and i believe one should always try and do the things that are most enjoyable!


      @gavinonymous

      as for table selection, i only play on 50bb min tables so i can play other full stacks but the downside is 8/9 of them are on the other 10 50bbmin tables! we are all regulars playing each other 10 tables at a time! haha!

      not funny :s_confused:

      the only way we stack each other off is from set vs set and overpairs etc

      which seems to be the underlying problem.

      the real battle is on the flop playing in position and cbetting, here the best players will gradually win and I understand this.

      It was just much easier to get stacks off people in lower limits lol


      oh and thanks for that link, not sure how to use it so i plugged in:

      2,40,100k,50 and tick Standard dev? line

      good to see how it fits in the grand scheme of things and puts my volatile period to shame!
    • gavinonymous
      gavinonymous
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,146
      I think you enter your winnings /100 hands, and also your winnings /100 showdown hands (I filter the database for went to showdown) I think (hope) this is right.

      The variance can be huge but the bigger your sample the more accurate it is. My sample is not so large. Even so the results are eye opening. For 250k hands (maybe 1 year for me) the average player with this winrate should earn about 30k but it can be as small as 10k, or even 3k in some simulations.



      Check out the guy with the yellow line. He has a good several months and then tanks the rest of the year.. meanwhile even grey-purple dude at the bottom earns a respectable $20k after losing for a third of a year - maybe if he played 500k hands he'd be at 60k, or if he's really unlucky - moving down a limit.

      The good thing is that most people wont fall in the 0-10% range and you have a 50% chance of being on or above the SD0 line. Poker is a game of skill, but variance can take a long time to overcome even if you are a solid winner. It must be really tough to go through the long breakeven or down, and question (even adjust) your play to compensate. As you can see, there was probably not much you could have done.

      BTW, do you have an EV all in graph?

      update: i just plugged in your numbers and its either comforting or scary to see a 4.5k average over 250000 hands 0-10% = 75$!!! crazy simulation - you need to do a few - it averages out to about 1k worst case scenario.
    • TheBrood
      TheBrood
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.07.2008 Posts: 4,383
      I dont know how to see my SD $ on Elephant and I wonder what number to put in "player"
    • gavinonymous
      gavinonymous
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,146
      Originally posted by TheBrood
      I dont know how to see my SD $ on Elephant and I wonder what number to put in "player"
      Can you filter elephant to show only hands where you went to showdown? If not maybe just choose a number that's about 20times your $/100 for an example - I'm not positive even that I have it right, but it looks right to me.

      for number of players, it's just samples so you can do several simulations of 10 players, or a few of hundreds.. just easier to see less. the percentages on the left are the important part. It gives kind of a bell curve where you can see how the average, luckiest and doomswitched players will do.