[NL2-NL10] NL2 AKs

    • michaelqian
      michaelqian
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 512
      Hi all

      Villain is 10/7/2.7 over 70 hands.


      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.01/$0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      UTG1:
      $6.37
      UTG2(Hero):
      $2.05
      MP1:
      $2.00
      MP2:
      $0.99
      MP3:
      $1.09
      CO:
      $3.47
      BU:
      $1.53
      SB:
      $2.00
      BB:
      $0.71


      Preflop: Hero is UTG2 with A, K.
      UTG1 calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.10, MP1 raises to $0.30, 7 folds, Hero calls $0.20.

      I thought the re-raise with his stats means a very strong hand, small range, AA, KK, QQ or AK, therefore I just called.

      Flop: ($0.65) J, 4, 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.40, MP1 raises to $0.80, Hero raises to $1.75, MP1 calls $0.90.

      My question, is shoving with a nut flush draw a mathematically sound play? I will win 36% of the time.

      Turn: ($4.1) 7 (0 players)
      MP1 gets uncalled bet back.

      River: ($4.1) 8 (0 players)
      MP1 gets uncalled bet back.

      Felt kinda bad I actually hit, he had AA.

      Final Pot: $3.2.

      Results follow:

      Hero shows a flush, ace high(Ad Kd).
      MP1 shows two pairs, aces and sevens(As Ah).

      Hero wins with a flush, ace high(Ad Kd).
  • 3 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      as strong hand as your I´d prefer 4-betting to 0.9$ and calling shove
      You can also shove directly if you think he is folding there JJ/QQ
      Just with AKs, you should want to see all 5 cards and often you miss and have to c/f on low boards
      lead out/shove is fine on that board with your equity
    • michaelqian
      michaelqian
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 512
      The way I played, I will only win 36 out of 100 times, which means a net long term loss.

      But this calculation is influenced by the fact that I KNOW he has AA now.

      What about in future? Against a tight opponent and and I don't know his hand?
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by michaelqian
      The way I played, I will only win 36 out of 100 times, which means a net long term loss.

      But this calculation is influenced by the fact that I KNOW he has AA now.

      What about in future? Against a tight opponent and and I don't know his hand?
      hard to put player on specific hand, especially when you hold blockers to the KK/AA
      I´d still play the same way, since player can have there JJ/QQ/AK