Running above EV?

    • gavinonymous
      gavinonymous
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      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,146
      I just updated PT3 and found the all in EV graph function really nice to look at, but I'm wondering how it can help me with my game? I'm not sure I understand what it means.

      Say I've been sticking it in in -EV situations, it's usually because I have the pot odds to do so. Does it mean you can run above EV by putting yourself in more situations where you are drawing with good pot odds and avoiding ones where you aren't? Is all in EV just a measure of luck?
  • 12 replies
    • Vargan
      Vargan
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      Joined: 07.03.2008 Posts: 565
      Originally posted by gavinonymous
      s all in EV just a measure of luck?
      Yes.

      Ignore it, and dont look for patterns.
    • GunFlavoured
      GunFlavoured
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      Joined: 19.10.2008 Posts: 626
      Originally posted by gavinonymous
      Say I've been sticking it in in -EV situations, it's usually because I have the pot odds to do so.
      I thought that if you have the correct pot odds it would be +EV anyway, unless you mean implied odds but these wouldnt be included in the all in EV line.
    • AlexanderD22
      AlexanderD22
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      Joined: 26.08.2009 Posts: 377
      So if you are running above EV you aren't just getting lucky?

      I am running above EV and I put that down to the fact that in a session on Wed night/Thu morning I seemed to be able to check my BB almost everytime I had weak cards. Then I would hit hands that nobody would expect, one big example I could think of was one guy who flopped nuts flush, of course I happened to have flopped straight flush with 2 gap connector. Sick I know and funny because playing SSS you never expect this to happen.
    • eszibit
      eszibit
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      Joined: 10.12.2007 Posts: 1,964
      I've been really curios about this aswell.I checked some hands where my ev was going really weird and this is what i got : I had AA vs KK on a 350BB pot ,i bet all streets,turn i get it in and he spikes a king on the river so good play= ev line goes up ,money line goes down.I was playing SSS i had AA,bet preflop he calls,bet 1/2 flop or something like that he calls ,he makes flush on turn and i still had half stack he pushes i call : good play=Ev line goes down,money line goes down.If u push with KK preflop but get called by AA Ev line goes down.If u check from BB and get the nut flush (nice hand btw) and the other guy top flush u have EV go up but in my opinion very lucky ( to have flopped flush i think it's something like 2%,to make nut flush <1% i guess ).
      Anyway the bottom line is that i think it is normal to run under ev because it's easy to get sucked out on(beeing the one that ussualy has the best hand when the money go into the pot u most of the time have the positive EV.) and over a large sample size i think it is a good way to measure your luck.
      Well that's my 2cents anyway
    • gavinonymous
      gavinonymous
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      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,146
      Originally posted by eszibit

      i think it is normal to run under ev because it's easy to get sucked out on(beeing the one that ussualy has the best hand when the money go into the pot u most of the time have the positive EV.)
      It sounds like raising/shoving in 40/60 situations could put you above EV line consistently, wouldn't you want to get more into these spots - e.g. limp/calling, just calling instead of 4betting etc..?

      I read somewhere in a Millar Sklansky book about trading mistakes, making a smaller mistake earlier in the hand to take advantage of a bigger mistake from your opponent by the showdown. If we get in hands with -EV situations, forcing more expensive mistakes from our opponents later in the hand could be more profitable in return.. What do you think?
    • Ka0s
      Ka0s
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      Joined: 05.11.2008 Posts: 722
      I'm not sure what that ev-line is all about,

      but it doesn't tell whether you're just lucky or not. I don't think you should look at that line at all.

      Just an example:
      When I push allin with the worst hand, and somebody calls me with the better hand, it would be -EV. But if I would have tons of fold equity against him, maybe it would be +EV.
      And the other way around, if you called allin with the best hand it's +EV, but if you would be behind against his general hand-range it would be -EV in general.
      And: If you have a monster and bet bet bet, opponent call call calls his flushdraw which he hits on the river with 3 bb's left. You're both all-in and it's -ev for you (for a full stack I believe).
      And gavinonymous gave another example too.

      Maybe you could argue this will even out after a lot of hands though, because this is basically variance.



      I don't think that EV-line tells you how much you should have actually won.
      Anybody knows more about this?

      :f_cool:
    • eszibit
      eszibit
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      Joined: 10.12.2007 Posts: 1,964
      Well i didn't say Fold equity is in the ecuation ,i think pokertracker just makes the calculation ..let's say u have 89s and push against some guy whom againts u have big FE. If u get the pot there the pokertracker makes ev line go up and money line up but if after 3 times u do this the guy calls preflop with AA then Ev line goes down ( 22% * pot ) .

      About the luck i'm just saying that if you put the money in with the best hand and u get sucked out than ofc EV line goes up and money line down.Implied odds don't count ..if u have AA and bet and villain calls u and hits set and then u put money in then ofc Ev line goes down (9% *pot).

      I'm not saying i'm right,it's just my opinion and from what i saw. Everybody will tell you to just ignore it but after having a biggish downswing of about 40k hands the difference between the EV line and money line is huge. (AA getting cracked all the time preflop , straights getting crushed by rivered flushes with the money going in on the flop , top pair top kicker vs fish with 2nd pair on the flop and getting there on turn etc.)
    • Ka0s
      Ka0s
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      Joined: 05.11.2008 Posts: 722
      Originally posted by eszibit
      Well i didn't say Fold equity is in the ecuation ,i think pokertracker just makes the calculation ..let's say u have 89s and push against some guy whom againts u have big FE. If u get the pot there the pokertracker makes ev line go up and money line up but if after 3 times u do this the guy calls preflop with AA then Ev line goes down ( 22% * pot ) .

      About the luck i'm just saying that if you put the money in with the best hand and u get sucked out than ofc EV line goes up and money line down.Implied odds don't count ..if u have AA and bet and villain calls u and hits set and then u put money in then ofc Ev line goes down (9% *pot).

      I'm not saying i'm right,it's just my opinion and from what i saw. Everybody will tell you to just ignore it but after having a biggish downswing of about 40k hands the difference between the EV line and money line is huge. (AA getting cracked all the time preflop , straights getting crushed by rivered flushes with the money going in on the flop , top pair top kicker vs fish with 2nd pair on the flop and getting there on turn etc.)
      From what I understand, there needs to be a showdown for the all-in ev to do anything. So at least two players all-in.
      Maybe I'm wrong there?

      And I also just read somewhere that if you're all-in on the river for a few bb's the allin is + or - your whole stack. It doesn't calculate it from the moment you were all-in as I thought.
      But I could be wrong again?

      I know there used to be mistakes in calculating this all-on ev, but I don't know how things are now.



      I'm still to sleepy to say anything usefull :O
      Does anybody knows how this all-in ev is exactly calculated?
      Then we could probably say if it's usefull or not :) .
    • eszibit
      eszibit
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      Joined: 10.12.2007 Posts: 1,964
      Well pokertracker has the graph " EV : All-in performance " that's what i was reffering to.

      This is what i found on the pokertracker forum

      "The Expected Value graph shows the amount of money you "should have won" based on your percentage chance of winning the hand at the point you went all-in.
      For instance if you get all-in preflop with AA against one opponent with a lower pocket pair you have about 80% chance to win. If the pot is $100 you have an EV of $80, but obviously you will either win $100 or $0 (or possibly split for $50 each) and the EV graph shows the difference between what you actually won and what you "should have won" in theory. The current EV isn't perfect in all situations at the moment (it will be getting an overhaul) but gives you a feeling for whether you're running good or bad."
    • Ka0s
      Ka0s
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      Joined: 05.11.2008 Posts: 722
      alright, luckily I was wrong about that then.
      So much info I got about this is outdated.
    • eszibit
      eszibit
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      Joined: 10.12.2007 Posts: 1,964
      ok,so i've been looking through the pokertracker forum and i've seen this answer from support in a lot of questions:

      "This is a known issue - the current EV functionality is just an introduction for the full functionality to come.
      Once EV is calculated at import time and stored in the database it will be made as accurate as possible."

      I still think over a large sample size it will tell you how good/bad u are running in terms of luck but it's really not too accurate.
    • Ka0s
      Ka0s
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      Joined: 05.11.2008 Posts: 722
      Yeah you're probably right then :) .
      But indeed, a very large samplesize needed and big difference between winnings and all-in ev winnings.