Really starting to get discouraged. 25k hands of variance.

    • inf4my
      inf4my
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.02.2008 Posts: 91
      Well, I guess I've finally reached the end of my rope. This is will be my first post about how bad I am running :)

      Ever since I moved up to NL20, I simply cannot turn a profit. I get hammered by bad beats all day long. When I have a good hand, nobody calls me. When I have a marginal hand, I get re-raised over and over again. When I call these re-raises, they have the goods 98% of the time.

      It has gotten to the point now where I don't even remember what it feels like to have a winning session. I just assume that I will not get any hands, and that when I do I will either lose or I will only make 2-3 dollars.

      Here is my NL10 graph:




      And my NL20 graph:




      I made my first deposit on Titanpoker at the exact same time that I moved up to NL20. How convenient for them that I am having extreme variance issues while trying to clear the $500 bonus.

      And here's some stats regarding my AA & KK performance. I found this pretty interesting to say the least.

      [B]AA & KK performance[/B]

      NL10 - Win: 91.05% | Amount won: $222.44 | BB/hand: 6.37 | W$@SD: 80%
      NL20 - Win: 89.52% | Amount won: $305.99 | BB/hand: 3.34 | W$@SD: 70.15%

      My aces and kings are getting cracked way more often. And when they hold up, they only win a few dollars. Basically any time the pot is for stacks, I know I am going to lose.

      Anyway that's my rant. I am going to keep pushing through I guess. But if this continues until 100k hands I think I will have to either switch sites or switch to 6max or heads-up.
  • 43 replies
    • lennonac
      lennonac
      Global
      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 1,421
      I would kill to have KK and AA win 90% of the time, thats running hot imo.

      I suspect you are just not adjusting to the new players that have a little bit...but not much of a clue more than NL10.

      Your non showndown line is way down on what it was, I suspect this is due to being up against more aggressive players.

      I would look into that first.

      I would recommend posting all your stats from HM so we can all see how you are playing.

      Keep learning it will turn around
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      Originally posted by inf4my
      or switch to 6max or heads-up.
      Escaping from variance by trying out NLHE formats w greater variance sounds like a great idea. :D

      25k hands isn't that much. Just review your play and continue.
    • jonnyjm
      jonnyjm
      Silver
      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 447
      Get of titan! Its pritty common knowledge that the cash games on I-poker network are alot tighter than other sites! Also id play NL25 not NL20 ;)
    • inf4my
      inf4my
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.02.2008 Posts: 91
      What's killing me here is not the fact that I'm losing hands. It's the fact that I'm being forced to fold by people that are 3-betting me after I c-bet.

      When I call them down, they almost ALWAYS have a set or 2 pair or something ridiculous. You can see on my graph the period where I tried to look these people up. That's where my SD line tanks and my red line goes up.

      I'm pretty sure that if I called everyone down my SD line would be at -$200 and my red line would be positive.

      Every day is the same routine:

      Wait patiently for strong starting hands in position (I play 12/11)

      Raise strong pre-flop to isolate

      If the flop is dry and player is not a calling station, c-bet 66% to 100% of the pot.

      If I actually have a hand, player folds 99% of the time

      If I have air or something marginal, I get re-raised

      If I call the re-raise, I'm always beat

      I'm forced to fold to these re-raises all day long which causes my red line to tank

      When I actually do get action with my good hands, it's always from some useless short stacker.

      If I get action from a full stack, it's pretty much a guaranteed suckout or he already has the nuts.

      Btw my W$SD stat overall went from 64% in NL10 to 49% in NL20. Which pretty much confirms that I'm getting coolered constantly even though I'm not calling people down excessively. My WTSD is only 30% which is pretty reasonable.
    • inf4my
      inf4my
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.02.2008 Posts: 91
      Originally posted by lennonac
      I would kill to have KK and AA win 90% of the time, thats running hot imo.
      Yeah it sounds nice. But what good is it to win 9 out of 10 times, when the 9 wins are only 1.5 BB each, and the 1 loss is 100BB.

      Your non showndown line is way down on what it was, I suspect this is due to being up against more aggressive players.
      It's pretty easy to be aggressive when you are flopping sets, and hitting flushes and straights on the turn.

      I thought it was aggression at first too, then I started calling these raises at around hand 14,600. You can clearly see what happens. My SD line plummets because these players are not smart enought to 3-bet bluff. They are 3 betting me because they have flopped a monster and think I'm going to call them based on my pre-flop and flop aggression.
    • jonnyjm
      jonnyjm
      Silver
      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 447
      I can help you more if you upload your stats, ie: PFR, VP$IP, att steal etc. The more stats you can produce the better.

      Note filter stats so its only for the limit your having problems with.

      Also i may of missed something but isit FR or SH your playing?
    • JuiceQuadre
      JuiceQuadre
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.10.2008 Posts: 2,688
      Ur WTSD is only 30%?

      Actually i think it should be much lower?
    • jonnyjm
      jonnyjm
      Silver
      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 447
      Originally posted by JuiceQuadre
      Ur WTSD is only 30%?

      Actually i think it should be much lower?
      I dissagree. Asuming that we're talking about FR.

      Myne is 30.82% and im beating my limit for 6.11bb/100
    • inf4my
      inf4my
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.02.2008 Posts: 91
      Originally posted by jonnyjm
      I can help you more if you upload your stats, ie: PFR, VP$IP, att steal etc. The more stats you can produce the better.

      Note filter stats so its only for the limit your having problems with.

      Also i may of missed something but isit FR or SH your playing?
      This is FR NL20 on iPoker. I don't table select religiously but I do filter by highest players per flop and average pot and join the 10 tables at the top of the list.

      I play 6 to 12 tables at once depending on the time of day.




    • jonnyjm
      jonnyjm
      Silver
      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 447
      Ok well having spent about the last 40minutes reviewing your data i'v noticed a few things that could be contributing yo your poor results atm. But first though i really would recomend taking the time to select your tables. higher the players flop % is oviously the better, but also the bigger the average pot the better. so losse and big pots is what your after. As i also said though in an eairlyer posy I-poker is know for been tighter than other sites. When you sit down at a table keep an eye on the player flop % because if the table gets to tight you'll have to leave and find another table (in the long run your win rate will thank you). I Personally play at table with a higher players flop % of 21. I like them been as losse as possible though when i join.

      Moving on....

      You stats. I think the problem is a combination of your play out of posistion, your showdown, aggresion and river street. This is what i obsereved:

      Firstly your VP$IP out of posistion may be slightly high, what hands are you playing UTG & UTG+1? Anything more than AA, KK, AK, AKs, QQ i wouldnt recomend especially at NL20, just because other players at this limit are more that willing to call you with all kinds of hands...They dont respect posistion much so you need to make sure your not playing dominated hands.

      On the SB what range of hands are you completing?

      I think another leak may be folding to much on the river. Your winning a resonable % of your hands but with a fold to river bet % been 61 that suggest your either going to far with your hands or making a few questionable dessisions. The main reason i think this is a problem is because of your agression, you seem to bet alot so i imagine pots can get pritty big but then only for you to fold on the river?

      Id also say you need to calm down your betting on the flop most importantly OP. Remember betting is a good thing yes, but if you do it to frequently you become prodictable and exploitable. when you in posistion this is when you want to be playing big pots. when your OP you want to be keeping the pots small unless you have a monster. Checking a bit more OP isnt such a bad thing. I dont know if you do or not but also be a bit more selective about C-beting when theres more than 2 players in the pot...its more likley one of them has hit something.

      I carnt remember is i covered this other point (sorry if i already have). Your W$SD % is a bit low IMO. Some people may disagree with that. But this tie's in with how you bet alot and fold on the river more. Bet abit less save money on your weak hand (as i said by keep pots small OP etc), Get more showdowns with your strong hands and you'll be golden.


      Thats my view on things, but if anyone else wants to add something or question something iv said then by all means do...

      Good luck
    • inf4my
      inf4my
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.02.2008 Posts: 91
      Good points man thanks for taking the time to do that.

      Last night I spent a few hours analyzing my game as well and I came up with some of the same answers.

      A big problem that I seem to have that you touched on, is that I will bet very aggressively on the flop/turn regardless of position, and by the time the hand reaches the river I simply cannot call because the pot is huge and the villain has shown that he definitely has me beat, given that he called 3 huge bets in a row and is now leading into me on the river.

      I am also playing too loosely from early position. Often times I'll raise with something like 22-55 and then someone will re-raise me and I'll have to fold, which results in me losing 4BB over and over again. Doesn't seem like much at the time but it adds up.

      You asked if I am completing in the SB. The answer is hell no :) My blind VPIP is so high because I steal 25% of the time if it's folded around to me in the SB/BB. (which happens WAY too often on titan)

      I've created a little wish list that I plan to follow for my next 25k hands:

      1. Tighten my range a bit, especially in early position.

      2. Don't steal recklessly, make sure the players to my left are tight and no calling stations have limped into the pot before me.

      3. Try to sit at good tables. Leave the table if it becomes too tight.

      4. Only C-Bet around 55% of the pot, to keep the pot size smaller.

      5. Only C-Bet when it's likely to work. (Against tight players, dry boards, in position etc..)

      6. Do not call any re-raises unless they give me the right odds, or I have a good read on the villain. (I think this may be the most important. I've lost a ridiculous amount of money from calling re-raises where I knew 100% I was beat)

      7. Value bet more. Unless there is strong draws on the board, I have to extract more value from my strong hands without worrying so much about getting sucked out on.

      and of course...

      DO NOT SHOW ANY EMOTION TOWARDS WINNING OR LOSING!!

      I need to focus on making good decisions and stop looking at the results. Yesterday I got re-raised all-in with my KK on a 5-4-2 board, and although I knew I was beat, I called and saw villain's 55. I lost my mind and started throwing things around my house. This type of behavior definitely needs to stop. I will never get anywhere in poker if I can't handle variance.

      Anyway thanks for the thoughts, I will push forward and I'm confident that I WILL beat this limit. I'll post another graph at hand 50k :)
    • gavinonymous
      gavinonymous
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,146
      Looks like you only check raised once in all of your hands. I like a more balanced cbetting line - 100% cbet is way too obvious. With read on your opponents' aggression and hand range you can easier balance checking flops you don't hit with ones you do.

      ARe opponents taking this line against you when you don't hit (which is statistically ~2/3 the time) Opponents can also get a good read on your range due to your tight play. I see them do this line to me when I cbet and have missed. I think they are taking advantage of you.

      limp or call preflop (or both)
      you cbet flop - they call
      you cbet turn - they call
      you check river - they bet - you fold (or you bet and they catch your bluff with bottom pair)

      To avoid this, I try delaying my cbet until the turn against opponents I am sure will either just call or raise the cbet when I miss. Some flops are more obvious than others that I wouldn't hit - especially if when one is very tight preflop.

      I try to balance this check with check raising once in a while when I hit the flop. Next time the fish won't be so quick to try and steal my pot, and they can't call down what I don't bet. If they don't bet then I can be fairly sure I'm not being slowplayed and can use either pot control or protection depending.

      I think psychologically the fish wants to see 4 of the 5 cards in order to know that they are beat, instead of just the flop. To a fish with K:cT, an A:cJ:h3 board has so many possibilities. I think when they see a turn 7 your cbet with QKs is more likely to succeed.

      Another thing that might help is firing a third barrel. I don't love to do it, but sometimes it's necessary to fold out the low pp of my opponent. I will also bluff the river in the right situation. 3betting/squeezing preflop is also something you need to do. Players at NL20 seem to think a bit more, but not too much ;)
    • inf4my
      inf4my
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.02.2008 Posts: 91
      I think you are overestimating my opponents a bit :)

      I'm not losing money to fish, I'm losing money to super tight nits who play 8/6

      At NL20 FR these guys don't know how to do things like float or squeeze. They call pre-flop, and if they hit top pair or better they play aggressive as hell with it.

      Most of the money I've lost is against tight players who are simply out flopping me. I have no problem double or triple barreling against a donk who I know is capable of calling the flop and turn with bottom pair.

      You raised an interesting point though. I NEVER check-raise lol. Somewhere along the line in my poker career I got it into my head that check-raising is a donk play. I definitely need to work this into my game somehow.
    • gavinonymous
      gavinonymous
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,146
      Originally posted by inf4my
      I think you are overestimating my opponents a bit :)
      Probably lol, I think I overestimate my opponents also!

      You should come play at pokerstars.. even the nits are fish!
    • inf4my
      inf4my
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.02.2008 Posts: 91
      I am only staying on titan until I clear the bonus. From what I've seen, the quality of play on FTP and PS is miles above iPoker.

      iPoker is just a bunch of ultra-tight rocks who buy in for 20-50BB and wait for QQ+

      They are easy to exploit, but all you can ever win off them is small pots. And when you lose it will be for your entire stack since all they ever show you is the nuts.

      Titan was a good place for me to learn the game, but it's clear that I need to move somewhere that has a bit more action, even if the competition is tougher.
    • racenutalways
      racenutalways
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 174
      1) reduce the tables you are playing, you are NOT paying attention to your opponents
      2)reduce your tables, you are playing like a bot, systematic players are easy to read and easy to exploit
      3)reduce your tables, bonus is not worth more then money
      4)reduce your tables, you're not allowing yourself time to scan the lobby for loose players
      5)reduce your tables, because you are not allowing yourself time to scan the lobby, you are siting with 9 other taggs, good luck making money off of them

      5 solid reasons I learnt to reduce my tables I play. I played up to 24, dropped to 18, then 12, then 9 and finally got used to 3 tables. Haven't seen red since

      Do not try to outplay beginners, you need to identify them and quickly. Taggs have a bad habit of raising every time they enter a pot, a rookie will play any 2 cards at any price, the drunks will not bow down to you either, all you're doing is juicing the pot which is what they love to chase.

      You need to decide what's more important, Titan points or money!!!
      The points will come, slow down, go through your PT3 or HEM and see how well you knew your opponent on the big lost or win.

      Don't Cbet too often, I call c-bets anytime I have a pair in the hole, 80% of taggs fire off one bullet then slow down when they have air. If you have taggs that called your stupid raise UTG with AJ, you have two options, check, or fire a bullet on the flop and turn, be careful here, taggs can be trapping you. Never cbet against the calling station, drunk, short stacker or recreational players.

      There are plenty of bad short stackers at ipoker, there are plenty of weak taggs, there are plenty of drunks, if you can't win here, you are NOT gonna win elsewhere.
      Being canadian, the time difference is a major edge, we're drinking our coffee in the morning grinding at the tables and the drunks are out for some gambling.

      inf4my:
      1)reduce tables
      2)seek out the weak
      3)chose the right tables and times of day
      4)STUDY your opponents
    • jonnyjm
      jonnyjm
      Silver
      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 447
      [/quote]Probably lol, I think I overestimate my opponents also!

      You should come play at pokerstars.. even the nits are fish![/quote]Do you count 10/8 as been a nit? I guess im just a fish beating my limit for 6.11bb/100 LOL!

      But i agree pokerstars is super soft.
    • inf4my
      inf4my
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.02.2008 Posts: 91
      I think you may be on to something :D I suppose there's no point receiving a $500 bonus when I'm going to lose $500 of my own money due to poor play.

      Today I've reduced my tables from 12 to around 5-6. Not bad so far, 600 hands, and I'm winning at 1.2BB/100. Which isn't very good, but it's better than losing. I'm noticing right away that my plays are smarter and more read dependant, and I'm not getting into as many tough situations.
    • inf4my
      inf4my
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.02.2008 Posts: 91
      Table selection working out nicely so far :f_cool: I kept switching tables looking for donks, and eventually I found this character lol.

      Villain is 40/30/2.0 over 250 hands, I moved seats so I could get position on him and this is what happened.

      $0.1/$0.2 No Limit Holdem
      iPoker
      10 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($26.29)
      UTG+1 ($3.80)
      UTG+2 ($3.60)
      MP1 ($6.10)
      MP2 ($16.40)
      MP3 ($65.77)
      CO ($10.53)
      BTN ($6.60)
      SB ($25.90)
      inf4my ($19.80)

      Pre-Flop: ($0.30, 10 players) inf4my is BB K K
      UTG calls $0.20, 4 folds, MP3 calls $0.20, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.20, SB raises to $0.40, inf4my raises to $1, UTG folds, MP3 folds, BTN folds, SB calls $0.60

      Flop: T 4 2 ($2.90, 2 players)
      SB checks, inf4my checks

      Turn: K ($2.90, 2 players)
      SB bets $5, inf4my calls $5

      River: A ($12.90, 2 players)
      SB checks, inf4my bets $2.90, SB calls $2.90

      Final Pot: $17.48
      SB shows
      K 6
      inf4my shows
      K K

      inf4my wins $17.48 ( won +$8.58 )

      SB lost -$8.90




      The very next hand he went all-in with K7o and got busted by AQ
      Then he re-bought for $12, went all-in again with K3 and was up against AA

      Poor guy was on mega monkey tilt hahahah