PT3 - What does "Expected value - All in perf." means ?

    • FWKanobi
      FWKanobi
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.02.2009 Posts: 740
      I see the blue line (which is the EV) and the green line which im most of the time below...

      What does the blue line means ?! what my EV should be in all in ?
      If my blue line is mostly below 0 , does it mean I push in the wrong hands or I'm dealt many crappy hands ?!

      thank you.

  • 5 replies
    • lennonac
      lennonac
      Global
      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 1,421
      The ev line is what you are expected to win from any given "allin"

      So say you are all in preflop for $10 with AA
      You are called be villan 1 with KK for $10

      The pot is $20 (Forget the fact there are blinds for a minute)

      So you have 81.9% Equity against KK

      so 82% of the time you win $20 and 18% of the time you lose $20

      so every time this situation arises you make 20*0.82 = $16.40

      So say in the example you win the hand, what you acually win will be $20(Forget rake for now) but you EV line will shove a win of $16.40.

      For all non allin hands it will follow what you win or lose.
      I wouldnt worry too much about it untill you have serveral hundered thusand hands.

      Hopefully someone can confirm or deny my maths....please
    • FWKanobi
      FWKanobi
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.02.2009 Posts: 740
      Originally posted by lennonac
      The ev line is what you are expected to win from any given "allin"

      So say you are all in preflop for $10 with AA
      You are called be villan 1 with KK for $10

      The pot is $20 (Forget the fact there are blinds for a minute)

      So you have 81.9% Equity against KK

      so 82% of the time you win $20 and 18% of the time you lose $20

      so every time this situation arises you make 20*0.82 = $16.40

      So say in the example you win the hand, what you acually win will be $20(Forget rake for now) but you EV line will shove a win of $16.40.

      For all non allin hands it will follow what you win or lose.
      I wouldnt worry too much about it untill you have serveral hundered thusand hands.

      Hopefully someone can confirm or deny my maths....please
      Thank you ,
      so what does it mean when the blue line goes below 0 ?! that I push ALL IN in situations where I'll probably lose money ?
    • cactusbob
      cactusbob
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2009 Posts: 24
      Yep. Basically, it means you're going all-in when you're behind.
    • FWKanobi
      FWKanobi
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.02.2009 Posts: 740
      Originally posted by cactusbob
      Yep. Basically, it means you're going all-in when you're behind.
      Ok , But I'm following the SSS chart , so how come I go all in when I'm behind ?
      If villain raise with AA and I push with QQ , the line will be below EV although I made the correct decision ?
    • slowshow
      slowshow
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.07.2009 Posts: 99
      Well im not sure, but SSS chart is guidline, most of time you shold be ahead if You follow it.

      Example: You are playing HU and both players commited 1$ to the pot and both of players push preflop. One of players have pocket AA and other one has pocket KK. Both are strong pockets and are to be shoved if someone rises preflop.

      KK guy will be minus All-in EV in HEM math sense, however this is cooler, cause both guys had good pockets and were expected to push in SSS preflop.

      So All-In EV shows how correctly You guessed the villains hand range before pushing in. If You correctly estimated that he IS BEHIND You get + if not, You get -. So if the guys VPIP is like 2% and PFR is 0 and hand history is big, and guy shoves preflop, that means he has something like KK or AA, this is trivial hand range reading example. You should then think twice before pushing with something worse than KK.

      If You shove in flop, turn, river, then math goes more complicated cause of complicated multiway pot structure, but main idea is the same.

      Sometimes playing by SSS charts can lead You to - All-in EV. However thats variance. :f_biggrin:

      Hope i did not mess up, just learning!