50 dollar DON 6 handed Fold AA

    • SuperSeanE
      SuperSeanE
      Global
      Joined: 11.09.2009 Posts: 48
      Background:
      Don 6 person
      4 players left
      Villan 1 is maniac with a roi of -50% over 1000games (i use sharkscope HUD)
      Villan 2 is super tight regualr with roi of 4% over 2000 games
      sorry hand not from my pokertracker as I had it turned off when this hand hapened

      Blinds 50/100 bubble time

      BB player 1: 2785
      UTG villan 2:1215
      Button villan 1: 3925
      SB Me: 1075

      Villan 2 moves all in preflop
      Villan 1 moves all in
      ME I have AA
      I pass
      Villan 2 shows KK
      Villan 1 Shows 56

      (result not important in so far as I do nt want it to affect any analysis)


      I would like some analysis about my fold in this positin which was based aroung my sharkscope HUD stats on the 2 players.

      I new that Villan 2's range here is very narrow- possibly the other two aces, but more likely ak jj qq kk possibly aq or tens but these last two are unlkely

      However Villan 1 is our perfect player- he donates his money to us and rnables poker to be profitable- whenever he beats me I do not moan about his donkness and when he hits his 2 outer I pat him on the back. His range is abslutely any 2 cards here. Plus he has been boasting in teh chatbox that he is going to try and bubble one of us regardless of the outcome.

      There are three reasons why I passed- I am the shortest in chips of the players and If i go all in here I am the person who will bubble if eithr of the two villans hit their hand and beat my aa. Secondly, Villan 1 could hit his 2 pair on the flop or his str8 or whatever and I would ahve passed into the money and the game would end. Lastly if villan one doubles up villan 2 he and I will be on similar chip stacks and I am confident that in this situation I will cash more often than not due to his bad play at bubble time- he will very likely bust himself or someone else if he can win a few all ins.


      Either way i either win through passing and villan 1 winning the all in
      Or i win more frequently than not if villan 1 loses the hand and me and him become the shortstacks at bubble time through my better bubble play.

      What do you guys think
      Please no replies along the lines of AA is ahead you are the shortstack you have to go all in WITHOUT looking at how this may have a negative effect upon my roi if I kept going al in here.

      Hey check my DON group out any people elcome to join. Thanks for your time.
  • 5 replies
    • lennonac
      lennonac
      Global
      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 1,421
      Why dont you put the hands or even the ranges that you thought at the time into a ICM calculator and you will have your answer
    • SuperSeanE
      SuperSeanE
      Global
      Joined: 11.09.2009 Posts: 48
      Because this does not tell me the whole story
    • noclaninator
      noclaninator
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.12.2008 Posts: 312
      If you fold in this spot you have >50% chance to win it right there. If you fold you have about 40% to win a 3 way all in with AA. Easy fold, enough said.

      Calling with AA is +chipEV no matter what. In a cash game and the early stages of a MTT you always make this call. In SNGs (especially DoNs) it can be different. Good fold
    • whateverdude
      whateverdude
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.02.2009 Posts: 232
      good fold

      It's funny how DoN's really remind of me 2-7 draw games. On the outside it's much simpler, but actually that makes having good logical thinking more valuable than just memorizing tables and having experience.
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      the things to consider are:

      How often will I lose with AA against two opponents? Probably at least 40%, maybe more.

      How often will maniac beat TAG? Unknown. But how ever often that will be, we make the money guaranteed that often.

      when TAG beats maniac, and we don't play, we are still in the game with a better position against both the rest of that time.

      When we lose with our AA, we are missing the money.

      So it could be the correct move to fold here. If we weren't smallest stack we couldn't fold for sure.