[NL20-NL50] J9o nl50 sh

    • ronekinky
      Joined: 25.04.2008 Posts: 533
      almost unknown villain. should we fold to his potsize turnbet?

      Known players:

      0,25/0,5 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.68 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with J:spade: , 9:diamond:
      2 folds, BU raises to $1,75, SB folds, Hero raises to $5,50, BU calls $3,75.

      Flop: ($11,25) Q:diamond: , 3:heart: , 3:spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $8,25, BU calls $8,25.

      Turn: ($27,75) J:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU bets $27,75, Hero raises to $45,63 (All-In), BU calls $7,75 (All-In), Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      River: ($98,75) Q:heart: (2 players)

      Final Pot: $98,75

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows two pairs, queens and jacks (Js 9d)
      BU shows two pairs, queens and threes (2d 2c)

      Hero wins with two pairs, queens and jacks (Js 9d)
  • 1 reply
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      I'd likely just c-bet less in a 3bet pot since he doesn't know our standard yet, and just c/f the turn even tho him potting the turn is weird.

      His range for doing that is either a pure float or something like AQ/KQ. I don't think he'd pot a pocket pair when it looks like he's pretty much won already, since tags are giving up with 6 outs there often. When they aren't, they are check/shoving, so unless he's merging a pocket pair there expecting you to check/shove some kind of bad redraw (which is probably way above the head of the common nl50 tag), you have a bluff-catcher.

      It's entirely possible for him to be making a move in this steal situation, but few players at nl50 will actually start floating you in a reraised pot right off the bat and risk $28 on the turn with a bluff when $18 would have pretty much the same effect. Unless you're willing to make a stand / get a long term read there for a stack against a fellow reg, i wouldn't risk it.

      Hope it helps.